Trump is willing to come to China for talks, and the 30% tariff on China may be maintained until the end of 2025

Recently, Trump's trade policy remarks and Bloomberg reports have made Sino-US trade relations the focus of public opinion. On May 16, Trump expressed his willingness to visit China for trade talks in an interview with Fox News, saying that Sino-US relations are important. On the 17th, Bloomberg reported that analysts and investors surveys showed that US tariffs on China may remain until the end of 2025 after the 90-day truce, and Sino-US trade will face more economic pressure.

On May 16, Trump gave a positive answer to whether he would visit China for trade talks in an interview with Fox News, saying that Sino-US relations are "very important."

However, on the same day, he suddenly issued a tariff forecast, saying that US Treasury Secretary Becent and Commerce Secretary Lutnik will send letters to many US trading partners in the next "two to three weeks", informing each other that the other party "has to pay" for doing business in the United States, that is, the import tariffs planned by the United States.

Trump also revealed that there are currently "150 countries" who want to reach a trade agreement with the United States, but the United States cannot negotiate with all countries. All countries can "appe" and the United States will be "very fair". Although Trump has not specified which countries will receive the letter, analysts believe China is also within the scope of possible circumstances.

Bloomberg's report on the 17th added more uncertainty to the trade prospects of China-US. The agency's survey shows that the tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods may remain at the current level after a 90-day truce. According to a survey of 22 respondents from fund managers, banks and research institutions from Asia, Europe and the United States, tariffs imposed on Chinese products in the United States may remain at 30% this year until the end of 2025. This tax rate is enough to eliminate 70% of China's shipments to the United States, the world's largest economy, in the medium term, and put huge pressure on Sino-US trade.

The investigation also reflects low expectations for trade talks to quickly revoke Trump's tariffs on China during his second term. Raw materials expected to show China's industrial output slowed in April because tariff threats affected exports.

Most respondents expect trade negotiations to end in a superficial agreement, and it is difficult for China and the United States to change their relative positions before the 2026 US midterm elections. Moreover, respondents have different opinions on the direction of tariffs in six months. Seven people believe that tariffs will be lowered below 30%, and six people predict that tariffs will rise. If China and the United States reach a final trade agreement, tariffs may be reduced to 20%.

The 90-day truce begins on May 14, and China and the United States temporarily lower tariffs on each other's goods. But respondents generally predict that Trump's first term tariffs will remain the same, as lowering them may anger his supporters. Trump's tariff policy on Chinese goods has become one of the major variables affecting the global economy and market this year. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the RMB will remain at the level of 7.2 yuan.

Overall, Trump has a complex attitude towards trade policy. On the one hand, he expressed his interest in Sino-US trade talks, and on the other hand, he plans to set new tariff rates for trading partners. Bloomberg's investigation reveals the severe situation that China-US trade relations may face in the short term. Against this background, the direction of Sino-US trade relations is full of variables, and the global economy and market will continue to be affected by relevant policy trends.