Affected by the crisis, European orders fell by 30%

Sunny Worldwide LogisticsIt is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Southeast Asia. It is more of a cargo owner than a cargo owner~

Previously, France's unilateral pilot taxation has seen parcel volume drop off a cliff. Now that the 27 EU countries have unified the implementation of the new policy, coupled with the new customs processing fees at the end of the year, cross-border sellers who have long relied on domestic direct shipping of small parcels to Europe will face the dual changes of skyrocketing costs and restructuring of operating models.

The policy transition period is clearly locked: July 1, 2026 to June 30, 2028. After the end of the transition period in 2028, the fixed fee model will be cancelled, and all inbound packages will be subject to normal customs duties strictly in accordance with the legal commodity tax rate.

1. The current core billing standard (implemented from July 1st) uniformly levies a 3 Euro/6-digit HS product category tariff. The core billing logic is:

- Classification of goods according to 6-digit HS customs code;

- For multiple items of the same category in the same package, only one 3-euro tariff will be charged;

- For different categories of goods in the same package, taxes and fees will be superimposed.

✅ Practical examples:

- Case 1: 2 T-shirts of the same style (same HS code) → only charged 3 euros in tariff

- Case 2: T-shirt shirt (two types of different HS codes) → a total tariff of 6 euros will be charged

- Case 3: mobile phone case data cable sticker (three types of different HS codes) → a total of 9 euros in tariffs

2. Secondary cost increase: New customs processing fee will be added in November 2026

The European Parliament and the Council have finalized a customs reform agreement. Starting from November 1, 2026 at the latest, all e-commerce packages entering the EU will be charged an additional 2-3 euros/ticket customs administrative processing fee to cover the labor and operational costs of small package inspection, declaration, and traceability management.

Cost overlay impact:After the two fees are implemented, the minimum new hard cost for cross-border direct mail small packages starts at 5 euros. For affordable small commodities with a unit price of only a dozen euros, taxes and fees will directly eat up 15%-30% of the profit of a single product, and the low-price and volume model is completely ineffective.

3. Core boundaries of taxes and fees (clear distinction to avoid misunderstandings)

1. The 3 Euro category tariff is a temporary special tariff, which is independent of the original IOSS import value-added tax and cannot be deducted;

2. The policy only applies to direct mail packages for B2C individual consumers. Regular B2B bulk trade imports are not subject to this fixed tariff;

3. The tax payment entity is a cross-border platform and a registered IOSS seller. It is not collected directly from the end consumer, but all new costs will eventually be passed on to the selling price of the product.

Before the implementation of the EU-wide New Deal, France took the lead in piloting the unilateral taxation policy for overseas small parcels on March 1, 2026. The market impact is of great reference value and intuitively confirms the huge impact of the New Deal on cross-border logistics and industry ecology:

1. Two days after the policy was implemented, the customs clearance volume of small packages at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport plummeted by 92%;

2. The average daily customs declaration volume at the port plummeted from 500,000 to 50,000;

3. In the first week of the tax, France directly lost about 50 all-cargo flights;

4. Vatry Airport’s cargo volume plummeted by 65%, forcing it to lay off employees and reduce operating hours;

5. A large amount of cross-border cargo is diverted to surrounding airports such as Liege in Belgium, Schiphol in the Netherlands, and Frankfurt in Germany.

Multi-dimensional impact: Three parties are under full pressure

1. Cross-border platforms: Bearing the brunt, low-price categories suffered overall losses

This new policy will have the greatest impact on cross-border platforms that rely on China’s direct mail small package model, such as Temu, Shein, and AliExpress.

Take Temu’s hot-selling T-shirt priced at 10 euros as an example:

Overall, small commodities with a unit price of less than 30 euros have basically no room for profit after the implementation of the new policy.

2. Cross-border sellers: Orders have plummeted, and the low-price and volume model has ended.

After the implementation of the New Deal, sales in the EU cross-border e-commerce market generally declined sharply, and a large number of small and medium-sized sellers fell into operating difficulties:

EU orders in most cross-border stores have dropped by more than 30%, and the daily order volume of some stores has plummeted from 150 orders to less than 10 orders;

Take the cross-border e-commerce industry in Ping County, Nanyang Town, Henan Province as an example. The local EU direct mail package averages nearly 20,000 pieces per day. The core category is small daily commodities of a few euros to more than ten euros. It has long relied on tax-free dividends to generate sales, and the original gross profit was extremely meager. After the New Deal adds tariffs, customs clearance fees, and value-added tax, there is basically no profit at all for low-priced goods.

3. End consumers: ultimately bear the cost, and consumption habits are fully transferred

Zhao Xinquan, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, made it clear: All tariffs and logistics processing costs added by the new policy will eventually be transmitted to the terminal selling price, and EU consumers will pay the bill.

Many international students and local consumers in the EU have reported that cross-border online shopping has completely lost its cost-effectiveness. In the future, local supermarkets and offline stores will be given priority to purchase goods, further compressing the market space for cross-border sellers.

This 3-euro category fixed tariff is only a transitional policy, and the EU has made clear plans for subsequent tax system upgrades:

1. After the end of the transition period on July 1, 2028: fixed charges will be cancelled, a five-tier simplified tax system will be activated, and commodities will be classified according to HS chapters, and five-tier gradient tax rates of 0%, 5%, 8%, 12%, and 17% will be implemented;

2. Prerequisites for policy implementation: the new tax system needs to be established and operated stably based on the EU Customs Data Center;

3. Important variables: Zhu Qiuyuan, a professor at Shanghai Customs College, reminded that if the EU Customs Data Center cannot be put into use as scheduled in 2028, the current 3-euro temporary tariff policy may be postponed, and the high cost status of the industry will continue to be extended.