When will global trade rebound? Maersk: next year
Vincent Clerc, CEO of Danish shipping giant Maersk, pointed out in an interview that global trade is showing signs of recovery, but unlike this year, which relied on inventory adjustments, next year's rebound will mainly be driven by rising consumer demand in Europe and the United States.
Ke Wensheng, who only took over Maersk this year, said in an exclusive interview with US financial media CNBC last week: Unless there are any negative surprises, we expect that demand will slowly pick up after entering 2024. This is consistent with the prosperity we have known in the past few years. Different, but what is certain is that demand mainly comes from consumption and has little to do with inventory adjustment.
Ke Wensheng said that European and American consumers are the main driving force behind this wave of recovery in trade demand, and the European and American markets continue to show "amazing recovery momentum." Maersk warned of weak shipping demand last year as warehouses were filled with unsaleable goods, consumer confidence was low and supply chains were experiencing bottlenecks.
Ke Wensheng pointed out that even if the economic situation is difficult and severe, emerging markets still show resilience, especially India, Latin America and Africa. North America and other major economies are faltering due to macroeconomic factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Sino-US trade war, but North America is expected to perform strongly next year. Ke Wensheng said that when the situation starts to normalize and the problems are solved, we will see demand rebound. Emerging markets and North America are where we see the greatest potential for recovery.
However, Kristalina Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is not so optimistic. In an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi on the 10th of this month, she said that the road to boosting global trade and economic growth may not be smooth. What I saw was even quite unsettling.
She said: Our world is going against globalization. For the first time, global trade expansion is slower than global economic growth. Global trade increased by 2% and the economic growth rate was 3%. Georgeeva pointed out that if we want trade to once again serve as an engine of economic growth, we need to build bridges and create opportunities.