Reversal: Trump suddenly changed his tune

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Recently, U.S. President Trump announced that starting from November 1 Imposing 100% tariff on Chinese products , and impose export controls on “all critical software.”

Trump said the additional tariffs and U.S. export controls on "all critical software" will take effect on November 1.

While Trump issued a social media post announcing a significant increase in tariffs on China, he also said that "there is no need for him to meet with China's top leader at the end of this month."

However, after the angry words, Reuters reported that a White House reporter then asked Trump whether his meeting with China's top leader at the end of the month had been cancelled. Trump changed his words: "INo cancellation, but I’m not sure if it will still be done. But I will definitely go, so I think a meeting is still possible. "

Trump expressed “shock” at China’s sudden announcement of a series of export control measures. He said: “Let’s wait and see. That’s why I set the effective date of (additional 100% tariffs) on November 1st. We’ll wait and see.”

Judging from the measures to be implemented by the United States, Trump is indeed very angry. Not only did he impose high tariffs on China, he also directly raised the tariff number back to three digits and began to impose new technical controls on China. It is not yet known which software will be restricted, or whether all software will be included in the restricted list as he said in the post.

Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of China's Global Times, wrote that Trump is in a bad mood now, and his failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize should be a factor. In addition, with the incitement of American hawks, "I think he is confused again and wants to repeat the confrontation between the two sides in April and May this year, and the United States lost that time."

After Trump announced that he would push the tariffs on China back to 130% (an additional 100% increase an additional 30% increase this year), the US stock market crashed. Less than eight hours later, Trump realized that the matter was serious. He originally roared that he would never meet, but suddenly changed his words and said that he would meet no matter what. He even added that he was willing to wait in South Korea for the Chinese delegation to appear. These words stunned the media and the market, because the attitude changed so quickly.

Based on Trump’s latest statement above, analysts believe:

1. The threat of additional tariffs is a negotiation tactic, but it may still be implemented: Trump announced that he will impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting from November 1. This move is his typical negotiation pressure method, aiming to increase bargaining chips for the upcoming heads of state meeting. Despite his tough stance, given that his policies are often iterative, he may still implement tariff policies in the short term if he fails to get the expected response through threats.

2. The threat of tariffs exposed the strategic anxiety of the United States: The timing of Trump’s threat coincided with China’s countermeasures in rare earths and other fields, which exposed the passive position and anxiety of the United States in the trade game. The threat is more like an "emotional catharsis" because the high tariff policy in April and May has had a backlash on the U.S. economy. Another significant tax increase may exacerbate domestic inflation and harm corporate interests. The actual implementation of this policy is questionable.

Before November 1, the APEC summit will be held in South Korea. According to reports, Trump has always hoped that China and the United States will hold key meetings during the meeting. However, regarding the meeting between the two heads of state, China currently has no clear information and needs to wait for official announcement.