Maersk CEO responds to stock price plunge: Freight prices cannot remain high for a long time
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After Maersk disclosed its third quarter results for 2026, its stock price fell by 10%, and then the decline narrowed. As of the close of trading on November 5, Maersk stock closed at 20,870 Danish kroner per share, with the decline narrowing to 6.0%. At the results conference, Maersk CEO Ke Wensheng responded to stock price fluctuations, container shipping cycles, excess shipping capacity and new shipbuilding plans.
The stock price is under pressure due to high expectations rather than weak performance
Ke Wensheng believes that the main reason for the sharp drop in stock prices that day was that analysts’ expectations were too high, rather than Maersk’s poor operating performance. He said that Maersk's performance is very strong, and if the epidemic year is not taken into account, this is the best performance the company has achieved. Before the results were announced, Maersk's stock had risen about 50% this year. With a positive long-term performance, it is not surprising that the stock price fluctuated up and down. This statement directed the market's attention from the single-quarter stock price performance to the company's fundamentals and industry cycle.
Corrections will come, but not necessarily as severe as some analysts expect
Maersk’s CEO admitted that freight rates, which have been relied upon to raise full-year performance guidance three times in 2026, cannot maintain current levels in the long term. But he noted that history shows container market downturns rarely last long. Regarding the view that the market may collapse for a long time after the delivery of a large number of new ships, he clearly disagreed: "Will it be as bad as they say? No, I don't think so." He believes that the abnormal market adjustment will eventually come, but the time may be later than some people predict, and the degree will not be as serious. He mentioned that in his 28 years in the industry, he has never seen the container shipping industry collapse for three to four consecutive quarters.
Excess transportation capacity will bring about an adjustment period, and the freight rate center is expected to be higher than before
Regarding new shipbuilding orders, Ke Wensheng admitted that ship deliveries in the next few years will be "much higher" than market demand. If we compare the order volume with expected market growth, the order volume over the past 20 years has been too large relative to market growth. But he also emphasized that all Maersk ships are currently operating at full load. He judged that excess capacity will eventually lead to a period of adjustment. As for the time, it may be next year or five years later, but it is rare for the industry to experience a recession that lasts for more than three to four quarters.
He remains relatively calm about freight rates. Current freight rates cannot remain unchanged over the next three years, but average levels are expected to be higher than in the past. Based on market fundamentals in 2025 and 2026, he believes that most of the factors supporting the market now will also continue to exist in 2027. Barring a severe recession, financial crisis, or debt crisis, market trends over the next few years are likely to be similar to those of the past two or three years.
Changes in market structure push up fleet demand
Ke Wensheng pointed out that in a market characterized by "turbulence" and inefficiency, but generally growing steadily, more ships are needed to maintain market share. The current container shipping market is increasingly dependent on exports from the Far East, showing a "one-way" development trend; exports of components related to energy, electrification and artificial intelligence infrastructure are strong, and these goods must be transported from east to west. Market growth is driven by cargo that is different from traditional transportation, and changes in transportation structure have put forward new requirements for fleet size and deployment.
Port bottlenecks are not only in the terminals, but also in the inbound channels and land network.
At the same time, the challenge of terminal and port bottlenecks remains and will be difficult to resolve in the short term. Maersk's financial report pointed out that the pressure is not limited to the terminal. In many ports, the biggest bottlenecks are inbound channels that limit ship access, rail links that cannot handle more cargo, or road networks that are stretched to their limits. Ke Wensheng said that this is why more ships are needed to transport the same number of containers, and he expects this situation to continue for longer.
The 26 new ships are the first step, and subsequent orders will be placed in the next few months.
Regarding fleet expansion, Ke Wensheng revealed that ordering 26 ships is the "first step". Maersk is in continuous dialogue with shipyards and is constantly working hard to find the right way to update the fleet. He said subsequent orders will be placed in the next few months. For the market, the pace of new ship delivery, changes in freight rates and the progress of port efficiency improvements will become important variables for observing the subsequent trends of Maersk and the container shipping industry.
