US exporters: All can be destroyed
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According to multiple media reports, American soybeans have recently ushered in a harvest season, but China, which has always been the biggest buyer, has not placed any orders. American soybean farmers are facing an extremely severe situation, with US soybean sales likely to lose up to 14 million to 16 million tons of soybean orders in China.
For this reason, some American farmers shouted desperately and helplessly on TikTok, complaining that Trump's tariff policy on China has led to this agricultural crisis: "Look, this is the best crop I have planted in my life! But now because of the tariff war, China will not buy it. I can only mess it up and throw it into the field because they can't be sold and it is worthless."
It is reported that Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, issued another warning in an interview recently that American agriculture is facing a crisis. Lagran said that US soybeans ushered in a harvest season, but China, which has always been the largest buyer, has not placed any orders, and soybean farmers are facing "extremely severe".
Lagran wrote a letter to US President Trump on August 19 that American soybean growers are facing "great" financial pressure. With the rapid arrival of the harvest season, the later the U.S. reached an agreement with China on soybean exports, the more severe the impact American soybean farmers were.
"Soybean prices continue to fall, while our farmers' production input and equipment costs have risen sharply. American soybean farmers cannot survive long-term trade disputes with our largest customers," Lagran wrote in the letter. He urged Trump to prioritize soybean issues in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
"China purchases more soybeans than all our other overseas customers combined," Lagran said.
A report released by the American Soybean Association shows that in the seven years before 2018, an average of 28% of the soybeans produced in the United States were exported to China, accounting for 60% of the total U.S. soybean exports during the same period. During the 2023-2024 market year (September 1, 2023 to August 31, 2024), the United States exported nearly 25 million tons of soybeans to China, far exceeding the 4.9 million tons exported to the second largest market of the EU.
According to research by the US Department of Agriculture, the first round of trade war initiated by Trump caused losses of more than billion in US agricultural exports. Soybean accounts for about 71%. Ragland said in response, China began importing more soybeans from Brazil, while U.S. soybean growers have not yet regained their market share.
According to a previous report by China Daily, Ragland published an article in The Free Press that the escalating trade war is a heavy blow to American soybean farmers because China is its largest overseas market. For many American soybean growers, this seems to be a reappearance of a nightmare scene of 2018. That was President Trump's first term, and his tariff measures cost U.S. agriculture billion and the soybean industry alone lost nearly billion.
In April this year, Chinese importers purchased at least 40 cargo ships from Brazil, totaling 2.4 million tons of soybeans. Before and after this large-scale procurement, China imposed tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States to counter its reciprocal measures. China is accelerating the process of "de-dependence" on soybeans and corn, but this "decoupling" is not a sudden outbreak, but a concentrated reflection of policy guidance, industrial experiments and market evolution in the past few years.
Through the "dual-wheel drive" of import diversification and technological innovation, China is systematically reducing its dependence on the United States and reshaping the global soybean and corn supply chain pattern.
Soybeans and corn are the core pillars of China's aquaculture system. Soybeans are mainly used for oil pressing and feed soybean meal (soybean meal accounts for more than 90% of the source of livestock and poultry feed protein), while corn is the main energy feed for breeding of live pigs, egg poultry and broilers. In 2024, China's soybean consumption was about 117 million tons, of which more than 85% depend on imports; corn imports only account for 4.4% of the total domestic supply, but the import dependence of deep processing and breeding links is still deepening.
Since 2015, the United States has been one of China's leading soybean suppliers. In 2017, China imported 32.85 million tons of soybeans from the United States, accounting for 34% of the total import volume; by 2024, the import volume dropped to 22.13 million tons, and the market share shrank to 22%. Although China remains the largest export destination for US soybeans, its strategic position is no longer the same.
In sharp contrast with the United States, Brazil has seen a significant increase in China's soybean import market in recent years. In 2024, China's soybean imports from Brazil accounted for 69.16% of the total soybean imports, while the United States soybeans accounted for 22.83% of China's soybean imports. Argentina, Uruguay and Canada account for about 7% of China's soybean imports in 2024.
In the field of soybean imports, China has long established a diversified supply chain, and soybeans from South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina are continuously imported.The United States is no longer the only option.
