The layout of global container shipping capacity has changed: the Middle East routes have shrunk, while routes to Asia, Europe and Africa have increased significantly.

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According to the latest statistics from shipping consulting agency Alphaliner as of June 4, 2026, the size of the global operating container fleet has reached 7,543 ships, with a total transport capacity of 34.208 million TEUs. However, affected by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the capacity allocation of different routes has clearly differentiated.

Data show that the total container shipping capacity of routes connecting the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent fell by 7.6% compared with the same period last year. This shrinkage is mainly due to the obstruction of passage in the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of regional security risks, which has led some liner companies to adjust their route deployment and reduce or suspend voyages calling at Persian Gulf ports. At the same time, routes from the Far East to Europe, especially those around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, have experienced strong growth. The capacity of the African route increased significantly by 25.3% year-on-year; while the Asia-Europe route—already the most intensively deployed trade channel in the world—increased 8.5% in the same period.

Currently, about 25% of the world's container fleet is deployed on the Asia-Europe route, compared with only 20.8% three years ago. This structural change is partly due to the concentrated deployment of global new shipbuilding capacity: about 36% of the new capacity in the past three years has been allocated to the Far East to Europe route. Alphaliner analysis pointed out that as long as ships cannot safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, this trend will be further strengthened.

Since the escalation of regional tensions at the end of February this year, the actual passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted. Although the United States has promoted relevant negotiations, it has so far failed to reach a substantive opening agreement. What is noteworthy is that domestic differences in the United States over continued military operations are widening. On June 3, local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution led by the Democratic Party by a slim margin of 215 to 208, requiring the Trump administration to cease military operations against Iran without congressional authorization. While the resolution is more symbolic than it can force an end to the conflict, it reflects growing dissatisfaction among U.S. political circles with current war tactics.

At the same time, Iran also released a clear bottom line for negotiations. Ibrahim Aziz, chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on the 3rd that stopping the war on all fronts is the primary content of negotiations between Iran and the United States. He emphasized that Iran will never allow the United States and Israel to undermine the unity of the regional "resistance front" (including Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi armed forces and some Iraqi militias). This position shows that even if diplomatic channels are reopened, the adjustment of regional security architecture will still face huge obstacles.

The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on container shipping has gone beyond short-term route adjustments and is driving the long-term restructuring of global shipping capacity. Liner companies were forced to reallocate ships originally deployed to the Middle East routes to Asia-Europe and Africa routes, resulting in a significant increase in the supply of shipping capacity in the latter. However, the extended voyage brought about by going around the Cape of Good Hope (approximately 10-14 days longer than the Suez Canal route) has also consumed some of the new shipping capacity, so that the effective shipping capacity has not been significantly increased simultaneously. For cargo owners who rely on the Persian Gulf route, the situation of tight space and high freight rates will be difficult to alleviate in the short term; while the Asia-Europe route needs to pay attention to the downward pressure on prices that may be brought about by excess shipping capacity. Future market trends will be highly dependent on the progress of geopolitical negotiations and actual changes in navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.