The number of cabins exploded again, and cabinet dumps and shortages increased simultaneously.
Sunny Worldwide LogisticsIt is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Southeast Asia. It is more of a cargo owner than a cargo owner~
Recently, freight forwarders on the Asia-Oceania route have begun to feel the rising market temperature. Freight rates have not yet experienced drastic fluctuations, but the tight situation of space has already appeared in advance. "Precursors of space explosion" such as the narrowing of the booking window, the increase in the proportion of dumping containers and the tightening of empty container allocations are appearing simultaneously. The market is transitioning from "stable shipments" to "confirmation of seats", and a series of signals indicate that the peak season of this route has started ahead of schedule.
The booking window shrinks and the certainty of shipping space decreases
Industry feedback shows that the most obvious change in Oceania routes is not the price, but the tightening of space supply. The available space on some routes has been reduced, and bookings have been cut off in advance. Even if the space is locked in advance, there is still a risk that it will not be loaded as planned, and market uncertainty has increased significantly.
At the same time, the proportion of containers dumped began to rise, and the pressure on empty container turnover also increased simultaneously, further exacerbating expectations of tight supply and demand.
Freight prices are rising moderately, but this is not the core contradiction
Judging from price performance, freight rates have indeed increased moderately. June data shows that the spot freight rate on the China-Australia route has increased by approximately 68% compared to mid-March, and the quotation price on the Shanghai-Sydney route has risen to approximately US,600/FEU. In addition, freight rates from major ports in China and Northeast Asia to Australia have increased by about 15% to 25% month-on-month, and the validity period of quotations has been significantly shortened. Some routes require confirmation of space in advance.
However, the current freight rate increase is still a "follow-up" adjustment and is not the main cause of market tension. What really takes the lead in tightening is the certainty of space supply and contract performance.
Both sides of supply and demand are tightening at the same time, which will be concentrated after the May holiday.
This round of tension emerged after the May holiday. On the one hand, Asian export demand has recovered rapidly, with shipments from multiple departure ports in China and Southeast Asia increasing significantly, and the overall loading rate in Oceania continuing to rise. On the other hand, suspension adjustments, voyage reorganization and equipment reflow pressure on some routes have further shrunk the actual available shipping capacity. Shipping companies balance supply by controlling cabins, adjusting containers and optimizing voyages, but the pressure on empty container turnover continues to amplify market tension.
Against this background, typical signals such as early order cutoff, priority release, increased difficulty in locking compartments, and an increase in the proportion of cabinet dumps have appeared one after another. These changes often precede significant price increases.
Oceania routes are less flexible and pressure appears earlier
Compared with the main routes in Europe and the United States, the capacity elasticity of Oceania routes is less and the route density is limited. Once demand is concentrated and released, the buffer capacity of the system is relatively weak. At the same time, the recent flight schedule fluctuations in some transit hubs such as Singapore have also had a certain impact on the transshipment efficiency and overall contract fulfillment rhythm, further reducing link stability.
In actual operation, the market is shifting from "stable bookings on a weekly basis" to "snatching and confirming bookings by window", and the pace has accelerated significantly.
It is still difficult to quickly alleviate short-term tensions
Judging from the current structure, whether the market will further tighten depends on three key variables: the sustainability of shipment demand, the further direction of space supply, and the improvement of empty containers and equipment deployment. Historical experience shows that in similar cycles, the first thing to disappear is often not the price advantage, but the certainty of shipping space. Once supply and demand continue to tighten, the shortage of shipping space may continue for some time.
For freight forwarders, the current changes in Oceania routes indicate that the market pace is accelerating. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the pace of space release and order cut-off time, confirm the availability of empty containers with the shipping company as early as possible, and book space appropriately in advance to cope with container dumping and turnover pressure.
