Drewry: The increase of GRI by the shipping company caused panic, and the freight rate will fall!
Some time ago, the doubling of freight rates and the increase of GRI by shipping companies have been hot topics in the industry. It seems that the rise of freight rates has become a fixed trend.
Drewry, a shipping consultancy, said the recent rise in container spot freight rates was temporary, saying it still “doesn’t believe that rates have bottomed out” and expects shipping companies to suffer losses.
Senior manager Simon Heaney said: "I think the shipping lines have done a pretty good job of intimidating shippers, and if the GRI hike doesn't succeed, or at least partially succeed, more capacity cuts will follow."
Simon Heaney said at the Drewry Container Market Outlook Conference on the 25th: "If the market fundamentals are in place, we will be more confident in predicting recovery, but the current situation is not in place yet."
He believes that the demand is still very weak, and the container ship orders for this year and next are still huge, and will soon be put into operation in retaliation, while the number of dismantled and idle fleets is still far below expectations. He added: “In our view, without these elements, we view the recent increases in spot freight and charter rates as temporary.”
The analyst expects global average freight rates, including spot and contract rates on all trade lanes, to drop by 60% this year. In the first forecast for freight rates to 2024, prices are expected to fall again, with the largest adjustment being on the east-west trade lane, where prices are expected to fall by 2