Hormuz suspended, Red Sea attack resumed! Many shipping companies made emergency deviations and insurance premiums soared

The situation in the Middle East suddenly heated up, and the global shipping market faced a double impact at the end of February.

On the one hand, a radio warning "no ships are allowed to pass" came out in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil tanker transportation came to a standstill; on the other hand, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen released a signal to restart attacks in the Red Sea, and the market's expectations for the resumption of navigation in the Red Sea were once again disappointed.

The two key waterways have simultaneously entered a high-risk state, creating structural pressure on global energy transportation and container trade.

On February 28, military officials participating in the EU Red Sea escort operation "Operation Aspides" disclosed that their ships received a radio warning from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, clearly requesting that "no ship is allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz." The news quickly triggered a chain reaction in the shipping and energy markets.

Iranian state media later reported that tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz had been significantly hampered after the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iranian targets. Data from the International Oil Tanker Traffic Monitoring System show that the speed of a large number of oil tankers around the strait has dropped to close to zero, showing concentrated parking or low-speed loitering, and regional traffic efficiency has plummeted. Multiple trade sources revealed that the world's major oil companies and energy traders have issued internal orders to suspend oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid security risks caused by the escalation of the situation. Many European governments have also issued advice to oil tankers flying their own flags in transit, requesting that they not enter the strait for the time being.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and is the only passage for crude oil exports from major oil-producing countries in the Middle East. About one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil must be transported through this passage. Under the combination of military signals and market risk aversion, this global energy chokepoint is facing a rare transportation stagnation situation in recent years.

Faced with the security alert in the Strait of Hormuz, major shipping companies around the world quickly activated emergency mechanisms. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd announced that it would suspend its ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz; France's CMA CGM required ships in the Persian Gulf and heading to the region to stay in safe waters and adjust relevant routes; Maersk has implemented a detour plan for some Middle East routes. Japan's three major shipping companies - Nippon Yusen Lines, Mitsui Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen - also instructed ships to suspend traffic in safe areas or stay put.

Shipping tracking data shows that after the situation escalated, some oil tankers and container ships chose to turn around or wait at anchor near the Gulf of Oman, and the traffic volume in the strait dropped significantly for a time. Some analysts pointed out that the current state is closer to a "grey blockade" - not completely closing the waterway, but compressing the actual navigation flow through security deterrence and risk amplification.

In parallel with the risk aversion of shipping companies, the insurance market is also rapidly revaluing risks. Several war risk insurers have issued policy cancellation or renegotiation notices to ships sailing in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The industry predicts that related war insurance rates may rise by 50% in the short term.

Previously, the war insurance rate for ships sailing in the Persian Gulf was approximately 0.25% of the ship’s replacement value. Taking a ship worth US0 million as an example, the insurance premium for a single voyage may rise from US0,000 to approximately US5,000. Cargo war insurance clauses are also facing adjustments, and insurance institutions are incorporating risks such as ship seizures and miscalculated attacks into pricing models. The market generally judges that insurance companies will not completely stop underwriting, but will control risks by significantly raising prices and renegotiating terms. This means that shipping has not stopped, but the cost structure has changed significantly.

Just as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is tense, strong signals of uncertainty are also coming from the direction of the Red Sea. According to the Associated Press report on February 28, two senior officials of the Houthi armed forces in Yemen said that they have decided to resume missile and drone strikes on the Red Sea shipping channel and may resume attacks on Israeli targets to express support for Iran.

One of the officials said the first operation "could take place as early as tonight." Previously, the Houthis had suspended attacks on Red Sea shipping after reaching some arrangement with the United States; after the ceasefire in Gaza in October 2025, their related attacks on Israel also scaled back. The release of the "reset" signal this time is regarded by the outside world as an adjustment of stance in the face of changes in the regional situation.

If attacks resume, the risk level of the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden waterway is bound to rise again, creating a double impact on tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Before risk expectations heat up, some shipping companies have begun to make arrangements in advance. Maersk stated on February 27 that due to "unforeseen constraints" in the Red Sea region, it would temporarily adjust some voyages originally planned to pass through the Suez Canal and instead bypass the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. The company stated that after communicating with its safety partners, it was confirmed that the above constraints made it difficult to avoid voyage delays, so it decided to take detour measures, but did not disclose specific risk details.

It is worth noting that Maersk had previously announced the gradual resumption of some Suez routes, which was regarded by the market as a signal that the situation in the Red Sea was stabilizing. This turn to the Cape of Good Hope route shows its re-evaluation of the current safety and operating environment. Detouring around Africa means longer voyages, higher costs, and “locked-in” shipping capacity, which will have a direct impact on the supply and demand structure of the global container shipping market.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz also quickly spread to the energy market. Brent crude oil prices rose significantly after the incident. Analysts pointed out that if the conflict does not lead to actual supply disruptions, oil prices may fluctuate around US per barrel; if sustained transportation disruptions occur, oil prices may further reach US0 or even higher. In the event of an extreme comprehensive blockade, the market forecast range may even extend to US0 to US0 per barrel.

However, some oil-producing countries have released signals to increase production and deploy reserves in an attempt to hedge against potential impacts. The market therefore presents a game state of “high volatility, strong expectations, and weak substance”.

Analysts believe that the probability of a comprehensive and long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still low, but low-intensity interference - such as harassment, detention, warning and expulsion, etc. - is more realistic. This type of behavior alone is enough to increase freight and insurance costs and compress the supply of shipping capacity.

For the shipping industry, the current situation is not only a geopolitical event, but also a re-pricing process of costs and risks. As far as the energy market is concerned, Hormuz does not need to actually "close down". It only needs a decrease in traffic efficiency, which is enough to trigger a chain reaction of prices and inflation expectations.

The current situation shows clear dual-channel pressure characteristics: the Strait of Hormuz, the core artery for energy transportation, is blocked, and the Red Sea-Suez channel, as the main container line, has heightened risks. Once the two key waterways are under pressure at the same time, the oil shipping and container shipping markets will face structural impacts - tanker freight rates and risk premiums will become more volatile, war surcharges and insurance costs will continue to rise, the frequency of route adjustments will increase, and shipping companies will experience greater operational uncertainty.

For the global supply chain, this is not just a single waterway issue, but a systemic challenge to the security of strategic shipping lanes. Before the military situation becomes clear, shipping companies and energy giants have obviously chosen a more prudent risk management path. The hope of resuming sailing in the Red Sea is not yet solid, and Hormuz has added another variable - the global shipping market in 2026 may continue to move forward with high volatility and sensitivity.

Faced with the complex situation of simultaneous pressure on the two major shipping lanes in the Middle East, it is recommended that relevant companies pay close attention to the safety dynamics and channel traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and communicate with carriers in a timely manner to confirm route adjustment plans.

For cargo involving the Persian Gulf route and the Red Sea route, it is recommended to evaluate the possible impact on shipping schedules caused by deviations or delays in advance and reasonably reserve a transportation buffer time. The rising cost of insurance is a foregone conclusion. It is recommended to clarify how war risks and other related expenses will be borne when signing a transportation contract. In addition, energy price fluctuations may be transmitted to fuel surcharges. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to relevant cost changes and prepare budgets for response.