Trump's 2.0 freight rate rises
Sunny Worldwide LogisticsIt is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, America, Canada, Australia, Southeast Asia, etc., and is more than the owner of the cargo owner.
Trump's next series of crazy operations in 2.0 have obviously "scareed" Wall Street, and have "unexpected" American allies, which will definitely "disrupt" the global supply chain... However, the latest report by JOC is that the largest retailer in the United States is signing a service contract for the trans-Pacific eastbound route in 2025-2026, with the contract freight rates about 15% to 20% higher than in 2024. And it is expected that the small and medium-sized importers will finalize the agreement at slightly higher prices in the coming weeks.
According to JOC, after cross-comparing information from three shipping companies, seven shipless carriers (NVOs) and two industry insiders, the large retailers have signed a contract for the long term. Overall, the freight rate in the United States and West is about ,600-,800/FEU, and the United States adds about ,000/FEU. Most trans-Pacific routes contracts are from May 1, 2025 to April 30, 2026.
According to industry insiders, after the first-tier super large customers (direct customers with more than 200,000 TEU a year) signed the contract, it basically laid the benchmark for negotiations between medium and small cargo owners.
Next is the negotiations for direct passengers in the second echelon (30,000 TEU-40,000 TEU per year). According to reports, the second-tier US-Swiss Long-Term freight rate is expected to be around US,700-US,900/FEU, slightly higher than US,500-US,700/FEU in 2024. In fact, negotiations for medium-sized clients are also progressing smoothly, with the first round of negotiations close to completion and the contract is expected to be signed in April.
In short, due to geopolitical tensions and Trump’s “chaotic punches”, the transportation industry is coping with unprecedented uncertainty... But life has to be passed... In fact, shippers and liner companies have adapted well to this new normal and found reasonable and appropriate solutions through “cooperation”, which has laid a solid foundation for this year’s contract negotiations.
Wanhai Shipping is also on the rise
Tommy Hsieh, general manager of Wanhai Shipping, is positive about achieving higher transPacific contract freight rates this year.
He said container ships will continue to circulate the Cape of Good Hope as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire breaks down. "Due to weak demand, freight rates are currently low. But as long as demand recovers, both of the shortage of capacity will appear."
He noted that “based on negotiations with customers, they can accept a 20% to 30% increase in freight rates.”
Xie Fulong pointed out that "the uncertainty of trade policy continues to affect imports and exports. We will review changes in market demand to adjust routes and ship deployments."
He also downplayed concerns about Trump's plan to impose high port fees on operators who own Chinese-built ships. He noted that "10% of Wanhai Shipping's fleet is built in China, and these ships are mainly deployed in the Asian regional market."
He added that Wanhai Shipping will receive three 13,000 TEU ships this year and will use the ships to expand its ocean routes. Meanwhile, between 2026 and 2030, Wanhai Shipping will receive 30 new ships, including 8 16,000TEU, 20 8,700TEU and 2 7,000TEU container ships.
If objection is invalid? Which company is most affected by the "US port fee"
The "301 Investigation" hearing of the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which has attracted much attention from the industry, has ended. Overall, despite severe criticism, few people expect Trump to abandon the plan altogether.
According to local media reports, "Trump is very obsessed with ships." The U.S. government claims to plan to "feed back" the U.S. shipbuilding industry by imposing high port fees on Chinese ships built by affiliated with U.S. ports...
The ideal is full, the reality is skinny... Alphaliner notes that this could "distort competition among the large liner companies serving U.S. ports."
Specifically, Alphaliner analyzed 1,002 container ships affiliated to 20 major U.S. ports in February. Data shows that of the 488 ships attached to US ports during this period, 190 were built in China, accounting for about 19%. South Korea has built ships account for about 54.5%.
Alphaliner data shows that the three companies that have the most ships built in China on US routes are Maersk, Dafei Group and Mediterranean Shipping (MSC), followed by Zim. Unlike the three major liner companies, most of its ships on US routes are built in China.
Alphaliner noted that Maersk, Dafei Group and MSC have a large fleet, which have the flexibility to redeploy and ensure that ships associated with China do not hang on the US, but Zim has no same choice.
In February, MSC had 91 ships attached to U.S. ports, with only 13 of which were built by China. And its global fleet has 899 ships.
"In addition, most of the Chinese-made ships in the Zim fleet are 5315-7800TEU container ships, all of which were recently leased for a long time from owners such as Seaspan or Navios. As Zim deploys 48% of its capacity on the Asia-North American route, there is little option for redeployment."
Alphaliner noted that it is clear that if the objection is invalid, the top liner companies have the ability to redeploy capacity.
