There will be more ships on trade lanes
According to research and analysis firm Sea-Intelligence, an important factor contributing to the problem of congestion in ports around the world is the number of ships deployed. The above conclusions are derived from data analysis in its trade capacity outlook database, and changes in the number of ships will be a factor causing congestion problems.
“It is less efficient to handle two 5,000TEU vessels than to handle one 10,000TEU vessel once the round-trip time to berth is factored in,” explained Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy.
In the early days of the pandemic, there was an unusually large drop in the number of ships deployed due to a rapid uptick in aviation, but after this early phase, the number of ships deployed first returned to normal before reaching a high point at the end of the peak season in 2021.
According to Sea-Intelligence analysts, there has been a temporary dip during Chinese New Year 2022 (1-15 February), and as we move into the current outlook for March and April 2022, there will be a A very sharp upward correction.
The graph below shows the change in the number of ships since the beginning of 2020 relative to the pre-pandemic period of 2017-2019.
Sea-Intelligence believes that the number of ships planning to leave Asia and then arrive on the west coast of North America will increase by 40% from the normal level before the epidemic, which will further increase the pressure on port infrastructure.
"There is a seasonal decline due to the 2022 Chinese New Year, but special attention should be paid to the growth in March/April 2022," Alan Murphy said.
More worryingly, according to him, the number of ships on the Asia-North America east coast trade route will increase by 60% in the coming months as shipping companies try to circumvent port congestion on the west coast. "This will seriously increase the pressure on East Coast port infrastructure," he stressed.
