Freight prices skyrocketed, and Maersk customers rushed to rush for shipments.

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In just a few weeks, market expectations for Maersk's full-year performance in 2026 have taken a dramatic turn. Before the company disclosed its first-quarter earnings in May, many industry observers, including Denmark's Saxo Bank analyst Mikkel Emil Jensen, once believed that Maersk was likely to lower its full-year profit guidance. However, as container freight prices continue to soar, this pessimistic expectation is quickly being reversed.

Drewry's World Container Freight Index (WCI) shows that since the release of Maersk's first quarter report, the cumulative increase in global container freight rates has exceeded 50%. Faced with this trend, Jensen told Danish financial media "Børsen" last week that he now expects Maersk to raise its full-year performance forecast. Rising freight rates are not the only driver.

Haider Anjum, a senior analyst at Jyllands Bank, pointed out that in addition to rising freight rates, cargo owners' shipments have also increased significantly, and there has been a clear wave of "rush for shipments" in the market. He analyzed that starting from July 1, the fuel adjustment factor (BAF) clauses in many long-term transportation contracts will officially take effect; at the same time, the market is generally expected that the Trump administration will launch a new round of tariff measures by July 24 at the latest. In order to complete the shipment before costs rise further, a large number of customers choose to ship in advance.

BAF is a regular surcharge established by liner companies in response to fluctuations in fuel prices, and is common in long-term contracts. Due to the sharp increase in fuel costs caused by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, Maersk has previously imposed an additional emergency fuel surcharge to immediately cover the new operating costs. This means that from July 1, some customers will bear both regular BAF and emergency fuel surcharges, further pushing up transportation costs.

Both analysts believe that this year's shipping season has been significantly advanced. “Many shipments that were supposed to be shipped in the second half of the year have now been shipped ahead of schedule,” Anjum said. Although this may mean that cargo volumes will be weaker in the second half of the year, the strong growth of the market in the first half of the year has provided sufficient support for Maersk and other liner companies. "If we are to renegotiate lowering our guidance in the future, the market would have to perform extremely poorly in the second half of the year," he said.

However, market risks still exist. Both analysts mentioned that Iran and the United States are now closer to reaching a long-term ceasefire agreement than before. Once the situation in the Middle East eases, fuel costs, fuel surcharges and freight rates are expected to gradually fall. However, Anjum believes that freight rates may not necessarily fall sharply - many liner companies are replacing part of the fuel surcharge revenue by increasing peak season surcharges (PSS), so that they can still maintain earnings levels after the fuel surcharge is phased out in the future.

On the other hand, if the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues (it has lasted for nearly four months now), the situation may go to the other extreme. Anjum quoted forecasts from economists at the bank as saying that if a ceasefire is not achieved after August, international oil prices may rise to US0 to US0 per barrel. By then, high inflation and high energy costs will further squeeze consumer demand. "Even if freight rates remain high, if customers reduce purchases or even stop shipments, then the high freight rates themselves will lose their meaning." He added. In fact, Maersk clearly stated in its annual report released in March this year that the global economic downturn is one of the major risks that may have a significant impact on its business in 2026.

Although the short-term market environment has improved significantly, long-term structural pressures have not disappeared. Jensen expects that good performance in the next two quarters will push Maersk to raise its full-year earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) forecast. Currently, Maersk’s outlook for full-year EBIT in 2026 ranges from a loss of US.5 billion to a profit of US billion. But he also warned that the market may focus too much on short-term benefits and ignore the long-term challenges facing the industry. "There are currently no structural factors that can support the industry's high profitability in the long term. In the next few years, it will become increasingly difficult for shipping companies to make money."

He specifically pointed out that the scale of global new container ship orders has reached a record high. Once the Red Sea channel resumes normal navigation, a large amount of shipping capacity that is currently consumed by sailing around the Cape of Good Hope will flood back into the market. At that time, the industry may once again face huge pressure from overcapacity.

Maersk will announce its second quarter 2026 results on August 6. By then, the market will be able to more clearly assess the actual impact of this round of shipping rush and rising freight rates on its profitability.