Tariff storm swept the US line, nearly 40% of goods "shut down", and cross-border e-commerce shipments "halved" by about 50%

The super-large freight forwarding company in Asia-US routes ranked among the top five in the world's cargo volume revealed that it is affected by the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policies.Currently, 35% to 40% of the goods sent to the United States have been suspended; in Vietnam, the proportion of suspended shipments has also exceeded 30%; cross-border e-commerce shipments have been cut in half!In terms of freight rates, the shipping company is currently on the sidelines, saying that freight rates will remain unchanged by the middle of this month, but will further reduce flights. According to the company's estimates,The overall shipment volume will be reduced by more than 10% this year.

The container transportation industry is deeply anxious about the impact of US line trade volume due to the tariff war. Industry insiders predict that the implementation of ultra-high tariffs in the United States will trigger protests and even retaliation among countries. The current tariff war may only be the beginning, and there are many uncertainties in the future, and the situation is comparable to the early stages of the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.The worst case is that US line logistics may stagnate, and the cargo volume will drop sharply in the short term, dragging down freight prices, and the long-term contract price of US line will also be affected.

The market is also concerned about whether there will be a short-term wave of transportation before the implementation of the new US tariff system. To alleviate the impact on global trade, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection has provided a 51-day grace period for the policy part of the 10% import tariff on all products. If goods loaded or in transit are loaded before April 5, if they arrive in the United States before May 27, they will be exempted from the additional tariffs.

Many industry insiders pointed out that the longer the tariff uncertainty lasts, the greater the impact on the short-term U.S. line. Pessimists even predict that the first quarter of the shipment volume may be the highest peak for the whole year, and import volumes may continue to decline after that.

Another top ten freight forwarding company in the world also said that the current suspension of shipments is relatively common, and some goods have also chosen to be shipped before the implementation of the new tariff policy on the 9th of this month (including the same day). In addition, a large freight forwarding company said that there are plans to ship ships on the 9th to ships leave port.

However, the top five freight forwarding companies in the world believe that this statement is unreliable as to whether the new tariff is based on the loading date, departure date or arrival date. The shipping company did not dare to easily determine that the actual calculation method of imposing tariffs must be finalized by the US Customs, but the US Customs has not yet given a clear statement.

The company further pointed out that after consulting directly with the three major European container ship companies and a large Taiwan container ship company, each shipping company said it needed to observe for a period of time to determine how to deal with the reciprocal tariff policy. It is expected that the freight rate will remain unchanged before the middle of this month, and it will be decided whether to adjust based on the actual situation after the middle of the month. At present, most of the freight rates per large box of US-Western flights remain at around US,300. After the average of the long-term price (,500-1,700), the actual charge is about US,000-2,100.

Although many countries and regions, including Vietnam, have proposed "zero tariffs" claims, the super-large freight forwarding company believes that the negotiation process with the United States will not proceed quickly. Because the United States also requires major industries to set up factories directly in the United States, and it is expected that the United States will still impose a tariff of about 20%. Next, after the buyer and seller reach an agreement on tariff sharing, there may be a replenishment wave between July and October.

In the past weekend, Americans have begun to rush to buy daily necessities. If the rush purchase volume is large enough, the replenishment volume will also increase accordingly. But from the perspective of the whole year, the overall shipment volume will still be reduced by more than 10%. Even if the shipping company's profits can maintain the 50% level last year, it is not easy.

The super-large freight forwarding company analyzed that the long-term contract price was at a low level when it was signed last year, and spot freight prices once rose sharply. This year, the long-term contract price may increase, but the spot price is not optimistic. Therefore, the total revenue of shipping companies is expected to decline significantly. If the Red Sea crisis is resolved, the situation may become even more serious.

At present, the US-line May long contract, which is under negotiation and signing, faces many variables. The Trump administration's reciprocal tariff collection is relatively high, and it plans to charge high port fees for ships built in China. At the same time, the tariff exemption of small e-commerce goods will be cancelled from May 2. In this context,The goods party refused to increase the price by 0-400 based on last year's long-term contract. Some senior executives of large Asian shipping companies estimate that the average price of long-term routes in the United States and West this year will fall around US,700, and there will be no price above US,000.

Looking back at the beginning of March this year, the industry estimated the length and price of each large box of the ultra-large, large and medium-sized direct passengers. At that time, the price of the US-Western long-term price of the super-large direct passenger car was about ,500-1,700, and there was no peak season surcharge (PSS) and the price of the US-East Eastern United States was 0; the price of the US-East Eastern United States was about ,700-1,800, and the price of the US-East Eastern United States was ,000, and there was no peak season surcharge; the price of the medium-sized direct passenger car was about ,000, and the price of the US-East Eastern United States was about ,000, and the price of the US-East Eastern United States was ,000, and the price of the peak season surcharge was also no peak season surcharge. Last year, the price of super-large direct customers was between ,200-1,500, and the price of large and medium-sized customers was between ,500-1,700.

Judging from the regional market situation, a listed freight forwarding company recently reported that steel and aluminum products, chemical products, tires, low-voltage products and freezers in North China are greatly affected by the reciprocal tariffs, and shipments are reduced or suspended; some customers in Central China send the goods forward to April 9, and after April 14, some bookings will be unsubscribed and turned to wait and see.

In terms of e-commerce, the cost has exceeded the bottom price of the goods, and the expected volume will be affected by about 50%. A senior manager of a logistics project opened by Amazon Global revealed that 90% of the e-commerce goods sent to the United States in China are shipped by sea, not as imagined by the outside world. A small amount of furniture and daily necessities in South China said that the reservation needs to be suspended. The other large direct passengers (BCOs) are still waiting for foreign instructions. The company said that ships can be exempted from basic tariffs by 10% before April 5, and ships can be exempted from reciprocal tariffs by 9.

The latest forecast released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that the U.S. imports will drop by 3.2% in June and 13.9% in July, and the situation will not be optimistic in the second half of the year. In addition, for shipping companies with a high proportion of manufacturing ships in China, cargo owners have reduced the number of cargoes signed, forcing relevant shipping companies to lower prices and seek goods, which also affects the overall market freight rate.