The EU ban on Russia begins to be implemented, and Turkish waters are in chaos

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After the European Union banned seaborne imports of Russian crude oil and imposed price caps on Russian oil, more and more oil tankers have gathered in Turkish waters.

Dardanelles awaits more tankers

TankerTrackers.com reports that eight tankers laden with crude have been waiting for days to pass through the Dardanelles Strait from the Black Sea and are currently waiting at Turkey's increasingly busy Icdas and Sarkoy anchorages.

According to TankerTrackers.com, 6.5 million of the 7 million barrels currently transported on these tankers come from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), more than 85% of which consists of Kazakh oil, with the remaining oil coming from Russia, but it is still The United States considers Kazakh oil imports.

With the ban in effect, the ships must obtain additional bond documents from their P&I clubs in order to transit the canal.

The increase of old oil tankers poses safety risks in Turkish waters

As more and more older tankers leave Russia, the risk of environmental damage grows. Turkey last month issued a notice requiring all ships transiting or entering Turkish waters from December 1 to provide shipowners. Confirmation from the P&I Club that it will be covered throughout the transit or under any circumstances while in Turkish waters.

The International Group of P&I Clubs has not acquiesced to this demand and as a result, ships are increasingly queuing in Turkish waters as a result of this impasse.

The Skuld P&I Club explained in a press release that issuing a confirmation letter would expose the P&I Club to sanctions for breaching EU, UK and US laws, and the International P&I Group has stated that it is unlikely to issue a similar letter. Urgent discussions are currently underway between the EU, Türkiye and insurance companies to find a solution.

The increasing crowding of Turkish waters brings many accident risks. Last Friday, two general cargo ships collided in Istanbul's Ahirkapi anchorage. Both ships were seriously damaged. This is the seventh collision in this anchorage this year.

According to data from shipping platform Sea/, a further 148 tankers are due to sail to Russia in the next two weeks. Among them, 83 are empty ships, 30 are fully loaded ships, and the rest are loaded with part of the cargo.

Russian Tanker Tracker, created by Greenpeace using public AIS and satellite data from MarineTraffic, tracks tankers leaving Russian ports. According to statistics from this tracker, 24 tankers carrying Russian fossil fuels headed to Europe, two of which left Russia on December 5.

Asia’s crude oil imports restricted

In the nearly 300 days since the conflict with Ukraine broke out, Russia has redirected its crude oil sales to Asia in the face of Western resistance.

It remains to be seen how much more Russia will manage to ship to Asia's two largest countries.

Analysts at Xclusiv shipbroking company said: "Although China, the world's largest crude oil importer, and India, the third largest crude oil importer, have not joined the ban, they have also joined the ban due to restrictions on shipping capacity, financing and insurance. It’s difficult to import as much crude oil as we have in recent months.”

Ulf Bergman, senior economist at charter platform Shipfix, said: “Assuming the price cap is enforced and Russia, as previously stated, will not sell oil to anyone who abides by the price cap, then the seaborne trade of Russian crude oil Possibly transferred to older and non-EU flagged tankers.”

Bergman continued: “Then the value and freight rates of older tankers will rise, and tankers formerly engaged in other sanctions-violating trades will also be used to transport Russian crude oil to customers in Asia and elsewhere, thus circumventing sanctions and price caps..

counterproductive effect

For shipowners who are currently affected, they currently have difficulty understanding the position of insurance companies/P&I clubs.

One shipowner said, "IG Group is just burying its head in the sand, IG is flexing its muscles... Instead of seeking a mutually acceptable solution, they are using diplomatic channels to exploit their position." Another sources said.

Ironically, the above-board mainstream oil tankers are currently being restricted.

Non-IGP&I insurance providers, which are increasingly insuring ships carrying Russian oil, may not object to providing the requested documentation.

"The current procedures and deadlock are having the opposite effect than intended. Mainstream fleets are being prevented from transiting, while dark fleets can theoretically transit the Bosporus," one source said.

Analysts at brokerage Affinity believe that other major Russian crude importers outside the EU own about 26% of the world's oil tanker capacity, and about 31% of the chemical tanker capacity. Next, their capacity may be transferred to the CPP, or it may be reallocated, such as making the national fleet responsible for transporting Russian cargo, while most other carriers carry out "business as usual" in their markets that are not subject to sanctions.