The war in the Middle East continues to simmer, and freight prices rebound again
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Affected by the continued escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, the sharp increase in international oil prices, and the release of concentrated shipment demand at the end of the month and quarter, global container freight rates have once again rebounded. The latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on March 27 showed that the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) closed at 1826.77 points, an increase of 119.82 points from last week, with a weekly increase of 7.02%. It resumed its upward trend after a brief correction.
Judging from the performance of each route,American routes have become the main force in this round of increases. The freight rate for the route from the Far East to the US West rose sharply by 14.51% in a single week, and the rate for the route to the US East rose by 11.7%; the European route rose slightly by 4.1%; the Mediterranean route fell slightly by 0.72%; the Persian Gulf route, which was directly affected by the geopolitical conflict, continued its upward trend, with a weekly increase of 12.15%. Currently, the freight rate for the Asia to Persian Gulf route has risen to approximately US,728 per TEU, an increase of US4 per TEU in a single week.
Market analysts believe that this round of rebound in freight rates is mainly driven by three factors: First, the war in the Middle East has pushed up fuel costs and raised the bottom of freight rates; second, shipping companies have proactively strengthened capacity management and control, driving up freight rates; third, concentrated shipments at the end of the quarter have driven a recovery in short-term demand.
Judging from the spot market, the current quote for a 40-foot container on the US West Coast route is about US,525, and on the US East Coast route, it is about US,525. At the same time, shipping companies are still promoting annual long-term contract signings and opening the "Open Fix" price window until mid-April. The price in the West US is about US,900 and the US East is about US,900. The price difference between the long-term contract price and the spot price is obvious.
It is worth noting that shipping companies continue to release price increase signals. Maersk has raised its April quotation for the West Coast route from US,600 to US,900; the freight rate for the European route has also been raised from US,200 to US,400 per FEU to a range of US,400 to US,750. In addition, shipping companies such as Yang Ming Marine Lines and Evergreen Marine Line plan to impose emergency fuel surcharges in mid-April. Although there are policy restrictions in some areas, it is expected that they will eventually be reflected in actual transaction rates.
From a macro level, the war in the Middle East has had a continuous impact on the global shipping supply and demand structure. According to industry estimates, this round of conflicts has affected approximately 1.5% of global shipping capacity supply, and triggered chain reactions such as regional port congestion, container shortages, and shipping schedule disruptions. At present, some ports in South Asia and Europe are showing signs of congestion. If the situation continues to worsen, the scope of the impact may further expand.
It is currently a critical window period for annual long-term contract negotiations on North American routes. Under the dual pressure of rising costs and heightened market uncertainty, shipping companies have generally taken a tough stance, driving up long-term contract prices. Yang Ming Shipping and Wan Hai Shipping both said that in the context of tight supply and rising costs, future freight rates will be "easy to rise but difficult to fall", and the spot market will also follow the trend of long-term contracts.
Overall, this rebound in freight rates is not only the result of short-term shipments and oil prices, but also a reflection of the joint effects of geopolitical conflicts, capacity regulation and market competition. As the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense and the uncertainty in the global shipping market continues to intensify, it is expected that freight rates will continue to fluctuate upward in April.
