145%25% tariff, the volume of goods dropped sharply by 70%, US line freight rates fell
Sunny Worldwide LogisticsIt is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, America, Canada, Australia, Southeast Asia, etc., and is more than the owner of the cargo owner.
On April 11, the latest Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose 1.9 points to 1394.68 points, an increase of 0.14%, showing a rebound trend for three consecutive weeks.
The performance of the four major ocean routes is differentiated, and freight rates of European and Mediterranean routes rise, which may be caused by factors such as increasing local market demand and active trade activities; while the US Western Line fell 4.8%, and the US Eastern Line fell 2.42%. It is expected that the decline in US routes will further expand next week, mainly due to the tense trade situation between China and the United States and the sharp decline in cargo volume.
Logistics industry insiders pointed out that the Sino-US tariff conflict has caused American importers to take a wait-and-see attitude and dare not place orders and purchase goods easily.
In contrast, Southeast Asian customers have rebounded. However, due to the shipping company's shift reduction rate of about 30%, and the cabin space is tight, it is expected that the cabin explosion will occur next week from Southeast Asia to the United States.
In terms of freight rates, on the 10th, some shipping companies have informed customers that the United States has suspended the imposition of high tariffs on 75 countries.CancelFreight per box0 lowerand stated that the original freight rate will be extended until the end of this month. The situation suddenly changed on the 11th, and shipping companies cut prices by nearly 0, while non-consortium ships dropped even more, up to 0 per large box.
Some freight forwarding companies analyzed that insufficient flight loading rates caused by domestic suspension of shipments are the main reason for the price reduction of these shipping companies.
althoughSoutheast Asian CountriesThe shipments have increased, but because Southeast Asia and China are on the same route, the domestic cargo volume has decreased significantly, making it difficult for freight rates in Southeast Asia to rise.
If the US line loading rate continues to decline, shipping companies are likely to furtherCut and merge flights.
It is understood that the "Premier Alliance" alliance, composed of three major shipping companies, ONE, HMM and Yangming, has made a decision to suspend the trans-Pacific American route that was originally planned to start in May.
Linerlytica analysis agency points out that shippers in Asia have alreadyMassive cancellationMarket confidence suffered a significant blow after booking in the United States.
Senior executives of a super-large freight forwarding company in Hong Kong and Taiwan revealed that the volume of goods shipped from China to the United States has decreased by 70%, and this reduction trend is still continuing.
At present, when shipping companies operate the US line from the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the United States, they mainly use ships from South China.
Although there are still some in ChinaHigh profitThe brand of goods is continuing to ship, but the volume of goods is expected to continue to decline. According to the latest 145% tax rate announced by White House officials, almost no goods can afford such high costs to continue exporting.
At present, the US line freight rate in mainland China is close to the cost price.
The head of a large freight forwarding company said that in the past, the volume of goods shipped to the United States was as high as 70%, and although it is still about 60%, low-priced goods such as textiles, home appliances, and agricultural products in Southeast Asia cannot completely make up for the domestic volume gap.
ExpectedAmerican ConsumersThe impact of supply chain disruptions will be felt soon.
Professor Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the Qianhai International Research Institute of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said when talking about the tariff issue between China and the United States that there are certain limits on the tariff dispute.
When tariffs are increased to 60% - 70%, with 500%Actually, there is not much difference, because such a high tariff level has made it difficult for both sides to continue to carry out normal trade exchanges, which is equivalent to achieving trade decoupling.
Xie Zhijian, former chairman of Yangming Shipping, pointed out thatNational Retail FederationOn the 8th of this month, the estimated U.S. container imports in July were reduced by 13.9%, and raised to a decrease of 27%. It is also estimated that container imports will decrease by 28% in August.
Trump announced on the 9th that other countries except China will be subject to reciprocal tariffs90 days of delayImplementation, this estimated data may change again.
Xie Zhijian believes that even if American importers may turn to other countries such as Southeast Asia to rush to buy goods, it will be difficult to completely fill the gap in mainland China's cargo.
At present, China and the United States are under pressure from each other. In the long run, China and the United States will sooner or later return to the negotiating table and jointly seek solutions.
