European lines surged by more than 20%! The US West Coast is expected to stop falling in late December

Sunny Worldwide LogisticsIt is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, specializing in markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Southeast Asia. It is more of a cargo owner than a cargo owner~

On the 29th, the latest Shanghai Container Export Freight Index SCFI showed an upward trend, with an increase of 3.41%, reaching 2,233.83 points, ending two consecutive weeks of decline. The rise was mainly driven by the strong performance of the European and Mediterranean lines, which rose by 22.49% and 19.9% ​​respectively. However, the US West Route and the US East Route continued their downward trend, falling by 12.46% and 0.86% respectively.

Industry insiders pointed out that European cargo volume and supply are stable, so freight rates on European lines are expected to continue to rise. As for the western US line, it is expected that the decline will not stop until late December. As for the impact of Trump's tariff policy on freight rates, further observation is needed.

Taking into account that next year’s Lunar New Year will be advanced to the end of January, the industry expects to see the traditional year-end shipment surge in mid-December, when freight rates on the American line will have the opportunity to stop falling or even rise. Many freight forwarders said that the current cargo volume remains stable, but the oversupply of shipping capacity on the US-West Route has led to a decline in freight rates, which have dropped by a total of US,481 in four weeks. The ship loading rate on the US East route is not bad, and the decline has narrowed this week, entering a consolidation stage. Ship loading rates on European routes also performed well. As it was the last moment to sign long-term contract prices next year, major shipping companies once again pushed freight rates up, hoping to support long-term contract prices with spot prices.

According to freight forwarders, they have received notifications from many major shipping companies to increase freight rates on European lines. The freight rate per 40-foot container rose to US,500-6,300 on the 29th. However, there are rumors in the market that shipping giant Maersk raised the price to US,200 from December 2 to 8, and then lowered it to US,700 from December 9 to 15. It is expected that other airlines will respond and the increase may be discounted.

In this regard, industry analysts believe that Maersk may provide special prices for ports that are out of stock. It is also said that, considering the major reshuffle of shipping alliances in February next year, the new "Gemini Alliance" formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd has accepted bookings for space in early December. In order to seize market share and customers, airlines The freight rate strategy may be adjusted, resulting in fluctuations in freight rate increases.

According to industry insiders, the main reason for the steady rise in freight rates on the European line is stable cargo volume and stable supply. In addition, factors such as the imminent signing of long-term contracts and the extension of unloading time at various ports due to poor weather have jointly promoted the continued rise in freight rates..It is expected that the freight rate on the European line may rise to US,200 in early December.

Logistics industry players pointed out that before the Red Sea crisis is resolved, freight rates in the global cargo consolidation market are prone to significant fluctuations. In addition, the end of January next year will be the Lunar New Year, and shipment demand will emerge in advance. The demand on the Far East-Europe line is quite tight. Large European shipping companies such as Maersk have notified customers to increase prices on European lines again from December 1, and other shipping companies have also followed suit.

Next, there are two variables that may affect short-term market price and volume trends. First, there will be a wave of shipments before the traditional Lunar New Year. Many shipping companies and freight forwarders expect to have the opportunity to increase cargo volume in mid-December; second, the progress of labor negotiations at the East US Terminal. It is reported that negotiations will be held again in December. Is there any The potential strike risk will affect the freight rate trend of the US-Western Line.

This week, the latest Far East-Europe line spot market quotations surged 22%. Logistics industry analysts believe that the loading rate of the Asia to Europe line is good, so prices have rebounded; while the cargo volume from Asia to the United States and the West was not good before, causing prices to fall, but as concerns about the strike in the East United States began to emerge in mid-December Due to the psychological factors and the shipment surge before the Lunar New Year, the volume of goods in the North American line is expected to rebound and prices are expected to stop falling.

Logistics industry players further pointed out that as long as the loading rate of the Far East-Europe line remains good, freight rates will not be depressed and the industry will not increase investment in shipping capacity. As long as the supply does not increase significantly and there is no shortage of goods, prices are likely to rise. Recently, the cold weather in European ports has led to slow operations and extended loading and unloading times, which has also affected the supply of global ships.