Resumption of sailing, Maersk announces return to Red Sea
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After the Red Sea crisis lasted for nearly three years, the global container shipping market has ushered in an important turning point. On July 6, local time, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd jointly announced that they would resume services on some routes in the Gemini cooperation network through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. This marks the official launch of the Red Sea route recovery plan by the two companies, and is also regarded by the industry as an important signal for global container shipping to gradually return to normal operations. However, many analysts pointed out that after the deviation is over, the market will face new challenges in terms of capacity release and pressure on freight rates.
Route adjustment started, safety assessment is the prerequisite for resumption of flights
Maersk announced on July 6 that after a comprehensive assessment of the current regional security situation, it decided to work with Hapag-Lloyd to adjust the AE15 route in the Gemini cooperation network and resume navigation through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. The adjusted port sequence of the AE15 route is Qingdao-Kwangyang-Ningbo-Tanjung Pelepas-Port Said-Damietta-Colombo-Singapore and will no longer detour around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
Maersk stated that this adjustment is only the first step in the gradual resumption of Red Sea operations. Whether to further resume other Red Sea routes in the Gemini network will depend on the continued stability of the regional security situation and whether there are new conflict escalations.
This is the second time Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have tried to restore the Red Sea route since the outbreak of the Red Sea crisis. Since 2023, due to the regional security situation, most container shipping companies have long avoided the Red Sea and Suez Canal and changed their routes around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a large amount of global shipping capacity being occupied and transportation time and costs significantly increasing.
Analyst: Capacity release will be gradually promoted and short-term impact is controllable
It is generally believed in the industry that with the restoration of Red Sea traffic on some routes, the global container shipping market will enter a new round of adjustment cycle. Jyske Bank senior analyst Haider Anjum pointed out that according to Maersk's internal calculations, if Red Sea shipping eventually returns to normal, the effective capacity of the global container fleet will increase by approximately 7% to 9%. However, as this recovery adopts a gradual approach, new shipping capacity will be gradually released, which will help avoid a sharp decline in freight rates caused by the concentrated return of shipping capacity.
He also pointed out that the current timing for resuming Red Sea navigation is relatively favorable - after the peak summer transportation season, global freight demand usually enters a seasonal decline phase. Resuming the Suez route at this time will also help alleviate possible congestion pressure at European ports.
The capital market reacts cautiously, and there are still hidden concerns about the long-term balance of supply and demand.
The capital market reacted cautiously to the news of sailing resumption. After the news was announced, Maersk Class B shares closed down 5.4% that day, at 15,800 Danish kroner per share. Analysts believe that investors are worried that as more ships resume passage through the Suez Canal, the effective capacity of the global fleet will increase, which will put downward pressure on container freight rates and profitability of shipping companies.
Sydbank senior analyst Mikkel Emil Jensen pointed out that if major liner companies fully resume Red Sea navigation in the future, the global container shipping market may face severe tests in 2027. The current global container market itself has a large number of new ship orders. Once major shipping companies completely abandon sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, it is expected that an additional effective shipping capacity of approximately 2.5 million TEU will be released, further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand and putting greater pressure on freight rates and profits.
He also expressed caution about the timing of resumption, believing that before the United States and Iran reach a more stable regional arrangement, there are still uncertainties in security risks in the Middle East. Shipping companies were originally expected to resume Red Sea sailings later this year.
The pace of resumption of sailings and the pressure on port operations are attracting attention
Lars Jensen, chief analyst at shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, believes that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have decided to resume some routes, indicating that they have confirmed that certain safety conditions are currently in place based on their own risk assessments. He expects that the resumption of Red Sea routes will mainly occur in late summer to early autumn, that is, after the end of the global shipping season, to reduce the impact on existing shipping networks. However, he also reminded that if major liner companies resume the Suez route in a short period of time, the pace of port operations may be affected and trigger a new round of port congestion.
Lars Jensen further pointed out that even if the Red Sea route returns to normal in the future, not all voyages will pass through the Suez Canal again. Some shipping companies may still choose to allow ships returning from Europe to Asia to continue to bypass the Cape of Good Hope - the return loading rate is relatively low, and the deviation can not only absorb some of the new capacity, but also avoid paying Suez Canal tolls. In some cases, compared with paying higher transit fees, the increased fuel cost of detouring around Africa may not be higher, so it is still economical.
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