4.3 million TEUs are waiting in line for berthing, and global port congestion exceeds the peak of the epidemic
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The latest data from Linerlytica, a shipping consultancy, shows that there are currently about 4.3 million TEU of container ship capacity waiting to be berthed at ports around the world, which has exceeded the historical high of about 4 million TEU during the epidemic in 2022.
A large number of ships and shipping capacity are stranded outside the port, which not only disrupts schedules and container turnover, but also further reduces the actual available space in the market, providing support for the recent increase in sea freight and container ship rents.
The absolute scale of congestion reaches a new high, but the relative pressure is lower than in 2022
It should be pointed out that what is refreshed this time is the absolute scale of congestion capacity, which does not mean that the current congestion level has completely exceeded the epidemic period. The current total size of the global container fleet is about 34.4 million TEU, and the 4.3 million TEU waiting to be berthed accounts for 12.6% of the global transport capacity; when the global fleet size is about 25.3 million TEU in 2022, the proportion of congested transport capacity once reached 15.7%. In other words, although the absolute amount of shipping capacity currently occupied by port congestion is higher, its proportion of total global shipping capacity is still lower than the peak of the epidemic due to the significant expansion of the global fleet.
North Asia accounts for nearly half of global congestion capacity
East Asia, especially Chinese ports, is the core area where this round of congestion is intensifying. Multiple tropical storms and typhoons have affected the coast of China. Some terminals temporarily suspended operations and ships were forced to take shelter. After the port resumed operations, the concentration of ships arriving at the port and the backlog of cargo further pushed up waiting times.
Data shows that North Asia ports currently have about 2.2 million TEU capacity waiting to be berthed, which is close to half of the global congestion scale. Portcast data this week showed that there were 139 ships waiting in Shanghai Port and 77 ships in Ningbo Port, both at their highest levels since 2025. The waiting time for some routes in Shanghai Yangshan Port has been extended to 5 to 6 days, and some ships of other shipping companies even need to wait 7 to 8 days. The late arrival of ships will continue to affect subsequent port arrivals, container source allocation and return schedules, causing congestion pressure to be transmitted to other ports along the route network.
The difference in caliber between two congestion data
The capacity affected by delays previously announced by Sea-Intelligence is approximately 1.7 million TEU, which is lower than Linerlytica's 4.3 million TEU. The gap between the two sets of data is large and is caused by the use of different statistical methods. Linerlytica counts the total shipping capacity of ships waiting to berth at ports around the world; Sea-Intelligence measures the actual occupation of market effective shipping capacity caused by port delays.
Sea-Intelligence data shows that port delays currently occupy about 5% of global deep-sea container ship capacity, and global schedule reliability remains between 60% and 65%, lower than the 70% to 80% typically achieved before the epidemic. At the same time, the delay time is also lengthening - before the epidemic, the average delay for ships arriving late at night was about 3 to 4 days, which has now increased to 5 to 5.5 days.
Congestion continues to support freight rates and ship rentals
Port congestion prevents some ships from being able to turn around as planned, which is equivalent to temporarily removing some effective shipping capacity from the market. Even if new ships continue to be delivered, short-term shipping space may still be tight due to disordered shipping schedules. Linerlytica data shows that the Shanghai export container freight index further rose to about 3,355 points last week, a 156% increase from the beginning of the Iran conflict. S&P Global's Platts container freight index also rose to US$7,565 per 40-foot container on August 21, the highest level this year. Analysts believe that Asian port congestion, tight space and Panama Canal restrictions have jointly pushed up market pressure.
Panama Canal restrictions could worsen delays
In addition to Asian ports, tighter navigation capacity in the Panama Canal may further disrupt global shipping schedules. Due to lower-than-expected rainfall in the canal basin, the Panama Canal Authority announced that starting from September 3, the Neopanamax lock will provide 9 daily quotas, and the Panamax lock will provide 25 quotas; starting from September 15, the Panamax quota will be further reduced to 23. The Canal Authority also reminded that ships that do not make reservations in advance may face longer waiting times.
For freight forwarders and cargo owners, what currently needs to be paid attention to is not only the changes in ocean freight rates, but also the actual berthing time, the risk of container dumping and the connection of transshipment ports. The 4.3 million TEU capacity queuing up outside the port means that even if the space is booked, there is still great uncertainty as to whether the cargo can leave the port and arrive according to the original shipping schedule.
