The US line continues to rise, and Southeast Asia surges
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The latest Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was released on September 11. The comprehensive index reported 3662.18 points, an increase of 72.13 points from the previous issue, and a weekly increase of 2%, marking the seventh consecutive week of increases. In terms of routes, the North American route continued to rise, and the Southeast Asian short-ocean route saw a more prominent increase. At the same time, the European and Mediterranean routes continued to weaken, and the differentiation in the container shipping market further intensified.
The US line continues to rise, and the increase is more obvious in Southeast Asia
Data show that the freight rate per FEU from the Far East to the US West rose to US$7,339, a weekly increase of 1.33%; the Far East to the US East rose to US$10,479, a weekly increase of 1.5%. The performance of the Southeast Asian market was particularly outstanding. Per TEU from the Far East to Southeast Asia increased by US$117 to US$1,010, a weekly increase of 13.1%, breaking through the US$1,000 mark.
The industry believes that the global manufacturing industry maintained a certain degree of resilience in August. Manufacturing activities in the United States, the Eurozone, Japan and some major economies in Southeast Asia continued to expand, and new orders and output increased, supporting trade and transportation demand. At the same time, concentrated shipments before China’s National Day Golden Week may further push up short-term cargo volume.
However, demand is not strong across the board. The Far East to Europe dropped to US$2,545 per TEU, down 3.7% on the week; the Mediterranean route dropped to US$3,299, down 8.13% on the week.
Shipping companies stabilize freight rates through capacity control
The current market demand is showing signs of slowing down, but shipping companies are still controlling effective transport capacity through empty flights and reduced flights. Drewry data shows that there are 8 empty flights planned for the trans-Pacific route next week, higher than 7 this week. Freight rates are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term; capacity adjustments continue to be made in the directions from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. From September 14 to October 18, there are expected to be 79 empty flights on the main east-west routes, accounting for about 11% of the planned flights. This means that even if the growth momentum of cargo volume weakens, shipping companies may still support market prices by reducing supply.
The situation in the Red Sea has resurfaced, putting European routes under pressure
Recently, the situation in the Red Sea and the Middle East has heated up again, but freight rates on European routes have not increased as a result. The latest market quotation on September 11 shows that some spot prices from Shanghai to Rotterdam have dropped to approximately US$3,235/FEU, a decrease of approximately US$200 from September 4. At the same time, whether the Red Sea route will be further restored in the future will still be an important variable affecting Asia-Europe transport capacity. Recently, there have been new changes in the security situation in the Red Sea. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen are advancing towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has once again attracted attention to shipping security risks. If more liner companies gradually resume Red Sea routes, the extra ship time taken to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope will be reduced, and the effective capacity of the Asia-Europe route will increase, which may put downward pressure on freight rates.
Outlook for freight rates before and after the Golden Week
The current container shipping market has shown obvious differentiation: the US line is supported by demand, Southeast Asia has experienced outstanding growth, and Europe and the Mediterranean continue to be under pressure. As the National Day Golden Week approaches, short-term cargo volume may still be maintained, but a drop in demand after the holiday is almost inevitable. Whether freight rates can remain high at that time still depends on shipping companies' efforts to reduce shifts and port congestion.
