Intensive suspension of sailings, 79 sailings will be cancelled
Sunny Worldwide Logistics It is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Southeast Asia. It is more of a cargo owner than a cargo owner~
As the National Day Golden Week approaches, shipping companies continue to adjust shipping capacity arrangements. Drewry's latest data shows that from September 14 to October 18, 79 flights on the world's major east-west routes are expected to be empty, accounting for 11% of planned flights.
The increase in empty sailings before the Golden Week is a seasonal arrangement. Shipping companies proactively regulate transportation capacity.
During the Golden Week, Chinese factories generally went on holiday, and export volumes fell in stages. Shipping companies usually control effective transport capacity through proactive empty sailings, reduced sailings, etc. to balance supply and demand and support freight rates.
This year's empty flight schedule is combined with factors such as Asian port congestion, the resumption of sailings in the Red Sea and the delivery of new ships. The actual tightening of market capacity may be higher than the nominal data. For freight forwarding companies, they need to pay attention to the capacity management logic behind empty flights and reasonably predict subsequent changes in shipping space.
There will be 79 empty flights in the next five weeks, with the highest proportion of eastbound trans-Pacific flights
Drewry's statistics cover major east-west routes. From September 14 to October 18, there were a total of 721 planned voyages, of which 79 were expected to be canceled, with a cancellation rate of 11%, which means that 89% of planned voyages will still operate normally.
In terms of route distribution, the eastbound trans-Pacific route accounts for 52%, the route from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean accounts for 33%, and the trans-Atlantic route accounts for 15%.
At present, empty flights are mainly concentrated on the eastbound trans-Pacific route, followed by routes from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. The eastbound trans-Pacific route mainly involves Asia to the west and east of the United States, while the routes from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean cover major European ports. The concentrated distribution of empty flights reflects that shipping companies are specifically cutting routes with relatively weak cargo volume or sufficient capacity supply.
The number of empty flights has increased by nearly 56% in the past week, and China’s routes may continue to be adjusted
Compared with the overall data for the next five weeks, the changes in the latest week are more obvious. Drewry data shows that the number of announced vacant shifts from weeks 38 to 41 increased from 39 to 70, an increase of nearly 56% in one week.
Drewry pointed out that as the holidays approach, there may still be more cancellations on China-related routes. For goods that have been booked, please pay attention to subsequent voyage adjustments by the shipping company. Before and after the Golden Week, if the original voyage is canceled, the goods may need to be rerouted to other voyages, and the shipping schedule will also change accordingly. Shipping companies may further adjust shipping capacity before the holidays to cope with fluctuations in cargo volume and changes in the pace of port operations.
Freight rates have not yet fluctuated significantly.
The increase in empty sailings by shipping companies usually affects the market's effective transport capacity, but currently freight rates have not seen significant changes in sync with the number of empty sailings. Drewry data shows that the world container freight index was US$4,476/40-foot container on September 10, which was basically the same week-on-week.
In terms of routes, trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic freight rates both increased by 2%, while routes from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean dropped by 3%. Although the overall index is stable, the trends of each route continue to diverge: the U.S. route's freight rates remain firm due to demand support and Panama Canal traffic restrictions; the European route's freight rates continue to be under pressure due to the recovery of shipping capacity and weak demand. The increase in empty flights has not been immediately transmitted to freight rates, but the subsequent tightening of shipping capacity may provide support to freight rates on some routes.
Freight forwarding companies need to confirm the booking voyage and shipping date in advance
Before the Golden Week, shipping schedule adjustments have begun to increase. For freight forwarding companies that have recently shipped goods, in addition to paying attention to quotation changes, they also need to promptly confirm the booking voyage, shipping schedule and whether there will be any subsequent adjustment of empty flights. In particular, they should focus on major routes such as the Trans-Pacific, Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean.
It is recommended to verify the latest shipping schedule with the shipping company in advance, reserve sufficient transportation buffer time, and prepare alternative plans for possible container dumping, relocation, etc. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the pace of recovery of shipping capacity and changes in port congestion after the holidays in order to adjust shipping plans in a timely manner.
