Freight prices rebounded, the West Coast continued to rise, and the container shipping market sounded the clarion call for counterattack
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The recent container shipping market has shown a complex but generally positive trend. The latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on December 19 showed that the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported 1,552.92 points, an increase of 3.1% from the previous week, achieving a rebound for the second consecutive week. At the same time, the Drewry World Containerized Index (WCI) also rose sharply by 12% to ,182/FEU. Although traditionally faced with seasonal adjustments at the end of the year, freight rates on major routes have shown resilience beyond expectations, supported by strategic adjustments by shipping companies and relatively stable demand.
Route market: The US route leads the way strongly, while the European route consolidates steadily
The increase in freight rates this period was mainly driven by North American routes, while European routes were relatively stable. Specifically:
North American routes:Transportation demand generally remains stable, and spot booking prices continue to rise. The freight rate for Shanghai's exports to the basic ports in the western United States was US,992/FEU, a sharp increase of 11.9% from the previous period; the freight rate for Shanghai's exports to the basic ports in the east US was US,846/FEU, an increase of 7.3%. According to a large freight forwarder, although the spot price in the market has softened slightly by US-100 since the increase on December 15, and the current price in the West Coast is in the range of US,000-2,100/FEU, shipping companies have actively announced price increase plans in January next year, and some quotations intend to push the US-Western US,100/FEU above. The trans-Pacific route also performed strongly in the Drewry Index, with Shanghai-Los Angeles freight rates rising 18% week-on-week to US,474/FEU, and Shanghai-New York rising 19% to US,293/FEU.
European routes:The market has entered the traditional off-season, with relatively stable demand and slight fluctuations in freight rates. The freight rate for Shanghai's exports to European basic ports was US,533/TEU, a slight decrease of 0.3%; the freight rate to the Mediterranean basic ports was US,833/TEU, an increase of 3.5%. In the spot market, European line prices currently remain at a level of approximately US,400-2,600/FEU, showing that shipping companies are more effective in managing year-end slots.
The popularity of the ship chartering market continues, and long-term chartering has become a new trend
In line with the rebound in spot freight rates, the container charter market vitality will continue until the end of 2025. Market analysts pointed out that ships currently available for immediate charter are very scarce, which has caused liner companies to turn to longer-term charters to lock in future shipping capacity.
A significant trend is that the charter period is getting longer, and even 10-year long-term contracts are emerging, which is especially reflected in feeder ships of around 1,800TEU. This strategy not only reflects the determination of liner companies to plan ahead to ensure operational stability, but also provides shipowners with the confidence to invest in the construction of a new generation of energy-saving medium-sized ships, helping to promote the overall renewal of the fleet.
Three reasons why huge orders didn’t overwhelm the market
Currently, the global container ship order book has exceeded 11.6 million TEUs, equivalent to 34.8% of the existing fleet capacity, among which the order-to-fleet ratio for large ships is even higher. Although such high order volumes would traditionally trigger deep concerns about "overcapacity," so far, the container shipping industry has not fallen into the expected troubles in 2025. Analysts believe that there are multiple structural reasons behind this:
1. Geopolitical disturbances (such as the Red Sea crisis) objectively absorb part of the effective shipping capacity and extend the voyage of ships.
2. Global trade itself shows resilience. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that global trade volume will grow by 7% in 2025, with intra-regional trade and South-South trade in Asia growing significantly. These structural changes continue to create demand for container transportation.
3. Through alliance operations, precise capacity management and long-term contracts, leading liner companies have significantly enhanced their ability to manage market fluctuations and avoided purely vicious price competition.
The market next year: It may balance between fragility and resilience
In 2026, the industry generally believes that the outlook is fragile, and uncertainty and the shadow of "overcapacity" will become the "new normal." External factors such as global trade policies and regional conflicts will continue to make the shipping industry a geopolitical bargaining chip. However, within the challenge comes preparation. Predicting the future competitive landscape and uncertainty, leading companies including Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and Maersk are still actively investing in new ships and locking in long-term shipping capacity, aiming to be fully prepared for various future scenarios.
Analysts from Shipping Weekly believe that the recent rebound in freight rates is the result of short-term regulation and mid- to long-term structural factors. Although the road ahead is full of uncertainties, the container shipping industry is trying to find a new balance point amid fluctuations through more refined operations and strategic layout, demonstrating greater adaptability and resilience than in previous cycles.
