Shipping is in great turmoil, and the operational stability of major routes "collapses"

Sunny Worldwide LogisticsIt is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Southeast Asia. It is more of a cargo owner than a cargo owner~

In 2024, the operational stability of Asia-North Europe, North America and the Mediterranean routes has disappeared, and capacity fluctuations have reached unprecedented levels.

In its latest industry analysis, Sea-Intelligence, a leading provider of research and analysis, data services and consulting focusing on the global supply chain industry, analyzed the operational stability of the Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trade routes using "operating capacity fluctuations" (that is, the total capacity entering and leaving a trade route, which can be used as an indicator of the degree of fluctuation and changes in carrier capacity deployment).

Data for 2025 shows that there have been major structural changes in the shipping market, with carriers shifting from stable ship schedules to frequent and high-intensity capacity adjustments.

This trend is most obvious on the Asia-North Europe route, where capacity fluctuations reached 11 million TEU, 138% higher than in 2023, and much higher than the level of 3 million to 5 million TEU between 2012 and 2019.

Asia-North America and Asia-Mediterranean routes also show high volatility. Capacity fluctuations on the Asia-North America West Coast reached a record 10.4 million TEU, a 32% increase from 2024.

The Asia-Mediterranean route reached 6.9 million TEUs, an increase of 80% from 2023 and an increase of 21% from 2024.

Capacity fluctuations on the Asia-North America East Coast route are still at a high level, at 6.6 million TEUs, but compared with other routes, its growth is relatively stable.

These data show that the stability of ship capacity deployment before the epidemic has basically disappeared.

The once predictable “cascading buffer” effect, where capacity flows smoothly from primary to secondary trade lanes, has been replaced by a highly dynamic system.

Today, ships frequently adjust routes to respond to short-term demand fluctuations and to cope with operational disruptions.

Recently, global shipping has entered a new era of structural adjustment. The shipping capacity originally absorbed by the main Asia-Europe routes has begun to flow to secondary trade routes.