The main contract of container shipping in Europe plummeted!

Looking back on the trends this year,The main contract of Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures continued to soar from January to July, driven by strong market demand and geopolitical tensions. The highest increase during the year exceeded 278%, reaching a peak of 4763.6 points. However, the contract has since entered a downward channel, and as of the close of trading on September 9, the cumulative decline has exceeded 66%.

Behind this plunge, analysts pointed out that the main factors include shipping companies' continuous adjustments in freight rates, leading to depressed market sentiment; pessimistic macroeconomic expectations coupled with seasonal recessions, further exacerbating the market's pessimistic expectations; and shipping companies' efforts to cope with freight demand. fierce price war.

Specifically, major shipping companies continue to lower online freight rates in early September. The transaction price of large containers of some airlines has dropped to approximately US,500, while the freight rates of Hanxin Shipping (HMM), the world's eighth largest container liner company It even dropped to 82. In addition, shipping giant Maersk also announced that it will reduce the peak season surcharge (for European routes) on September 15 from the original US,000-4,000 to US,500-3,000, further opening up the downside space in the spot market.

In terms of the European economy, data released by research organization Sentix showed that the investor confidence index in the Eurozone fell for the second consecutive month in August, reaching -13.9, the lowest level since January 2024, showing signs of a slowdown in the European economy. , the prospects for future recovery are bleak.

From the perspective of actual freight rates, data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that as of September 9, the Shanghai export container settlement freight index (European routes) was 4566.27 points, down 10.6% from last week. At the same time, taking the Shanghai-Rotterdam route as an example, the spot quotations for both 20-foot and 40-foot containers have dropped significantly. Among them, the quotations for 20-foot containers have dropped by US0 to US,696, and the quotations for 40-foot containers have dropped by US,400. To ,400, the drop is quite significant.

Overall, the significant weakening of container shipping market demand is the main reason for the accelerated decline in spot freight rates. With the arrival of the cargo off-season, shipping companies are facing huge pressure to collect cargo and fill cargo space. In order to compete for market share, they have to reduce prices to attract customers, which has triggered fierce competition and price wars in the market.

As the economic recession is expected to increase, the market is less confident in future demand. Shipping companies have successively lowered freight rates. Coupled with the weakening support from the geopolitical situation, the European container shipping line's recent-month contract continues to operate under pressure. In the short term, the market generally believes that the short trend is difficult to reverse, and the probability of price fluctuations is still high. However, under the influence of geopolitical disturbances and a round of concentrated shipment demand before the end of the year, EC2412 may fall to a low level. There is a short-term rebound; in addition, since the pessimistic expected decline has been included in the far-month contract in advance, the downside space is expected to be limited and the rebound momentum will be stronger under bullish disturbances.

Analysts pointed out that the continued decline of the main container shipping index (European line) futures contract is mainly due to two core driving forces:

Weak market demand and reduced freight rates:Demand in the container shipping market has weakened significantly, directly leading to an accelerated decline in spot freight rates. With the reduction in freight demand, shipping companies are facing greater pressure to collect cargo and fill cabins, and have to respond through price reduction strategies, which further intensifies the downward pressure on market prices.

Geopolitical situation is expected to ease:Recently, large-scale demonstrations broke out in Israel, and people strongly called for a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. This incident has significantly increased market expectations for the easing of the geopolitical situation. This expectation not only increases market uncertainty, but also indirectly affects the container shipping market, because the easing of geopolitical tensions is often accompanied by the recovery of trade activities and the reduction of logistics costs, further pushing up bearish sentiment.

The container futures market will face multiple pressures. On the one hand, internal factors such as market supply and demand imbalance and rapid decline in freight rates will continue to exist, putting direct pressure on market prices; on the other hand, external factors such as changes in the geopolitical situation will continue to interfere with the market and increase market volatility and uncertainty. sex.

At present, shipping prices have fallen to a relatively low level, and the market outlook is expected to continue to fluctuate downwards, but with the possibility of periodic stabilization and rebound. The expectation of a U.S. economic recession has strengthened the bearish trend, and the market is highly pessimistic. The opportunity for bargain hunting needs to wait for the overall market to recover. The situation in the Middle East and the adjustment of shipping company strategies may trigger a short-term rebound, but the overall trend is still downward. Recent data shows that shipping capacity has been adjusted, with capacity reduced in September and more sailing suspensions due to holidays in October. It is expected that freight rates will remain stable during the Golden Week. At the same time, the deadlock in labor negotiations in the East United States has increased the risk of port congestion, and its impact on European shipping capacity remains to be seen, adding uncertainty to the market in October.