Only 30% of the world's ships arrive at ports on time, and the European line's on-time rate is 4%. Cargo owners and freight forwarders need to be wary of delivery risks
Sunny Worldwide Logistics It is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Southeast Asia. It is more of a cargo owner than a cargo owner~
In the second half of this year, a prominent change in the shipping market is attracting the attention of cargo owners and freight forwarding companies: there is not a complete shortage of ships and space, but it is becoming increasingly uncertain whether the goods can arrive at the port on time as planned.
A report released by Xeneta on October 12, 2026 showed that global container ship schedule reliability continued to weaken in September and has declined for the fourth consecutive month. In September, the global liner punctuality rate dropped to 27%, down 2 percentage points from August; the average ship delay time rose to 6 days, 2.4 days more than at the beginning of the second quarter. This means that less than 30% of the world's container ships were able to arrive as planned that month, and the remaining ships experienced varying degrees of delays.
Route performance is divided: European routes are under the most pressure, and delays on US routes are expanding simultaneously.
Looking at the main routes, the damage to Asian exports is particularly obvious. In September, the on-time rate of the Far East to Europe route was only 4%, and the average ship delay reached 9.9 days, the worst level since September 2021. During the previous impact of the epidemic, the flight punctuality rate of this route was as low as 3%.
For European cargo owners who rely on China's exports, the impact of delays is not limited to the delayed arrival time, but may also be further transmitted to factory production scheduling, overseas warehouse inventory arrangements, promotional season stocking and end-customer deliveries.
On the U.S. line, the flight punctuality rate for routes from the Far East to North America remained at 20% in September, but the average delay expanded to 6.9 days, an increase of 0.8 days month-on-month. Xeneta pointed out that China’s port congestion is gradually being transmitted to European and American destination ports, ultimately manifesting in berthing delays at overseas ports. At the same time, pressure on freight rates has increased simultaneously: the average spot freight rate from China to the West Coast of the United States reached US$7,717/FEU in early October, an increase of more than 4 times from US$1,778/FEU in September 2025; the long-term contract price rose to US$3,649/FEU, a month-on-month increase of 26%. Currently, cargo owners are faced with not only high freight rates, but also the uncertainty of “booked space but shipping schedules may still be delayed.”
Typhoon is the trigger, and insufficient network buffering is the underlying cause
Xeneta analysis believes that the deterioration of this shift period is caused by the superposition of multiple factors. First, the Asian region suffered successive strong typhoons from July to early September this year, which led to ship queuing, port jumping and adjustments to the order of calls; second, fuel cost pressure continued to exist; third, demand increased in traditional peak seasons, further exacerbating network load.
But from the perspective of industry operation, typhoons are more of a triggering factor. In the past few years, the global liner network has been under chronic high load, and the entire system lacked sufficient buffers when there were small fluctuations in ports, weather or demand. If a ship arrives several days late, subsequent ports of call, transfer connections and the next voyage may all be affected, thereby forming a transmission chain of "waiting at Asian ports - late departure of the ship - late arrival at European and American destination ports - continued disorder of subsequent voyages".
Gemini network reliability drops, and pressure on transit ports spreads outward
The Gemini cooperation network, which has attracted much attention this year, has also been affected. The network is composed of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. One of the important goals when it was launched was to improve on-time performance. However, data shows that the Gemini network on-time rate has dropped from 70% in June to 40% in September; the weekly on-time rate was still 62% at the end of August, falling to 34% in the week ending September 28, and some data in the week of October 5 further dropped to 28%.
This shows that in an environment where extreme weather and port congestion overlap, even if reliability is improved by reducing calls, optimizing the network, etc., it is difficult to completely isolate systemic delays.
The pressure on the transit terminal is also rising. Xeneta data shows that the average daily number of waiting ships in Singapore increased from about 12 to 22 in September, and the average waiting time extended from 1.9 days to 3.1 days. As an important global transshipment hub, the pressure on the Port of Singapore has increased, reflecting that China's port congestion is spreading to the outside along the route network and is dragging down regional transshipment efficiency.
There will be limited sailing suspensions in September, and capacity will be adjusted or increased in October.
It is worth noting that shipping companies did not cancel voyages on a large scale in September. About 6% of the capacity was canceled from the Far East to Europe, and about 8% from the Far East to North America, both at low levels in the past 21 months. This is mainly because the cargo volume is still there during the peak season and shipping companies are not willing to cut sailings easily. But after entering October, the situation may change.
Currently announced plans show that the proportion of flights suspended from the Far East to Europe in October may rise to 17%, and that from the Far East to North America may reach 13%. Shipping companies may need to adjust their schedules in stages to gradually absorb the delays accumulated in the early stage.
Operational Enlightenment for Export Enterprises and Freight Forwarders
The main risk in the shipping market in the fourth quarter is not only "whether space can be booked", but also "when can the goods actually arrive at the port after booking".
For export companies, if the product inventory cycle is short and the order delivery time is tight, focusing only on sea freight is no longer enough to cover risks. It is also necessary to include the on-time performance of the shipping company's specific routes, the possibility of jumping or changing ports, the congestion level of the destination port, and the safety inventory arrangement into the transportation plan.
For freight forwarding companies, they should explain the uncertainty of shipping schedules to customers in advance, improve delay communication and claim plans, and reserve more sufficient buffer time in booking, transit and destination port connections. The current export pressure in Asia has not yet been fully released, and the speed of recovery after the Golden Week will directly affect the stability of the supply chain in the fourth quarter.
