Will Suez "mostly return" in Q1 2027? Gemini takes the lead in adjusting the Asia-Mediterranean route, and the transit ports and ports of call are all changing

According to overseas media reports on October 19, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini cooperation network plan to make a new round of adjustments to the Asia-Mediterranean route layout, and relevant arrangements are expected to be implemented from the second half of November.

At the same time, Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO said that if there are no significant changes in the current security situation, most Gemini routes are expected to resume traffic through the Suez Canal in the first quarter of 2027. This adjustment involves not only new routes, but also changes in European ports of call, regional transit hubs and rotation arrangements for some routes. The transportation timeliness, booking options and transit plans from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean may all change accordingly.

According to the currently disclosed plan, Gemini will launch a transit hub route connecting China and the Western Mediterranean, operating via the Suez Canal. This route is numbered AE18 in the Maersk system and SE5 in the Hapag-Lloyd system.

The planned ports of call are Shanghai - Xiamen - Tanjung Pelepas - Algeciras - Tangier - Algeciras - Xiamen. The first voyage is planned to be carried out by the "Maersk Edirne" with a capacity of 13,100TEU, and is expected to sail from Shanghai on November 22.

This route does not simply increase point-to-point capacity, but focuses on strengthening the transit connection capabilities of the Western Mediterranean hub. Maersk stated that the new route will work with existing services to improve hub coverage in the Western Mediterranean and provide connection support from Asia to West Africa and the east coast of Latin America. From the perspective of network layout, the addition of AE18 makes the Western Mediterranean hub's role as a node in Gemini's Asia-Europe trunk network more prominent, and also provides a new path choice for cross-regional cargo flow transfer.

In addition to adding new routes, Gemini will also make adjustments to the call arrangements on some Asia-Europe routes. Asia-North Europe Loop 1 (Maersk AE2, Hapag-Lloyd NE1) will adjust the first port of call in Europe from Tangier to Rotterdam, adding a service option for transportation from Ningbo and Shanghai to Rotterdam. Asia-Mediterranean Loop 2 (Maersk AE11, Hapag-Lloyd SE2) will cancel the call at Tangier for westbound voyages, call at Port Said instead, and add a call at Salalah before passing through the Suez Canal. The recently put into operation Asia-Mediterranean Loop 4 will add Damietta calls and replace Shanghai with Nansha as one of the ports of call on related routes.

The above changes show that Gemini is redistributing the functions of European ports and regional hubs, strengthening transit connections in the Western Mediterranean, Egypt and other regions, and optimizing the service mix between Asian ports and European destinations. For freight forwarding companies, whether the original booking plan still has timeliness and transit advantages needs to be re-evaluated based on the new route's effective time, shipping schedule and specific destination port.

Another important signal of this adjustment is that Gemini continues to promote the restoration of Asia-Europe routes through the Suez Canal. Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, said that some routes have resumed operation through the Suez Canal, and more routes will gradually return in the coming weeks; if the security situation does not deteriorate significantly, most Gemini routes are expected to resume operation through the Suez Canal in the first quarter of 2027, but there may still be individual exceptions.

This means that shipping companies are gradually shifting from previous trial runs of individual routes to larger-scale network adjustments. However, route restoration is not a one-time event. Gemini previously adopted a phased and route-by-route approach to control possible impacts on ship deployment, port operations and hub transit. Shipping analyst Lars Jensen also recognized this gradual adjustment and pointed out that there are still differences in the degree of recovery of navigation through the Suez Canal, and the overall level has not yet reached full normalization. Therefore, the first quarter of 2027 should be understood as the shipping company’s expectations for the recovery progress, rather than the unified recovery date that has been determined for all routes.

The transportation timeliness of some routes from Asia to Europe is expected to improve. Compared with going around the Cape of Good Hope, the voyage through the Suez Canal can usually be shortened, but the specific time saved still depends on the port of call, shipping schedule and port operations, and it is not appropriate to simply apply a uniform number of days.

Booking and transit plans need to be rechecked. With the introduction of new routes and the adjustment of some port calls, freight forwarding companies should focus on the service changes between departure ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Xiamen, Nansha and other European destination ports, and confirm the transfer port, customs cut-off time and estimated arrival time. For goods that need to be transshipped to West Africa or Latin America via the Western Mediterranean hub, attention should also be paid to whether a more suitable connection plan will emerge after the new route is put into operation. With Xiamen as one of the ports of call in China, AE18 may provide a new booking path for cargo sources in Fujian and surrounding areas. Relevant companies can evaluate its applicability based on the cargo source structure.

There may be new changes in shipping capacity and freight rates. Circumventing the Cape of Good Hope will prolong ship turnover time. After the Suez Canal is resumed, demand for voyages and ship deployment on some routes may decrease. However, freight rates will not necessarily rise or fall as a result, and will ultimately depend on factors such as the actual scale of recovery, market cargo volume, shipping company capacity management, and port congestion.

Risks to the Red Sea and Suez Canal still need to be continuously assessed. The current route return plan is based on the premise that the safety situation has not significantly deteriorated. Freight forwarding companies should not conclude that route risks have been eliminated based solely on the shipping company's recovery plan. They should continue to pay attention to shipping company announcements, actual ship tracks, and cargo insurance arrangements.

Overall, Gemini is further reshaping the Asia-Europe route network, from adding new Asia-Mediterranean routes, adjusting European ports of call, to raising expectations that most routes will resume passage through the Suez Canal in the first quarter of 2027. For freight forwarding companies, what needs to be paid attention to in the future is not only when the Suez Canal will be fully restored, but also how route adjustments will affect the service coverage, transfer efficiency, transportation timeliness and capacity allocation of specific ports. Timely checking of shipping schedules, ports of call and transshipment arrangements will be more reliable than judging transportation timeliness based solely on overall recovery expectations.