Shipping companies suspend sailings, exceeding record during epidemic period

Sunny Worldwide LogisticsIt is a logistics company with more than 20 years of transportation experience, focusing on markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Southeast Asia. It is more of a cargo owner than a cargo owner~

Currently, carriers' operating profit margins on several major routes have fallen below the break-even point, but shipping companies still put market share above profitability and prioritize protecting market share.

According to a new analysis by supply chain digital services company Project44, the number of flight suspensions between China and the United States is expected to reach unprecedented levels in October 2025, with 67 planned suspensions from China to the United States and 71 from the United States to China. The analysis pointed out that the level of capacity reduction exceeded the record during the new crown epidemic. This highlights the serious disruption to seaborne trade caused by the Trump administration’s recent tariff measures.

Bart De Muynck, chief strategy officer at Better Supply Chains, said: "The intensity of carrier cancellations has not been seen since the early days of the epidemic. This strategy is more about maintaining freight rate stability in a market distorted by tariffs than responding to the crisis."

The "Liberation Day" tariffs that took effect in early August can be called "the most extensive tariff measure implemented in modern U.S. history," creating an environment full of uncertainty and volatility for global trade.

The most severely affected trade routes include the U.S. West Coast to Southeast Asia route, where the number of suspensions increased significantly by 75% year-on-year; while the number of suspensions on the China to U.S. West Coast route and Southeast Asia to the U.S. West Coast route increased by 46.5% and 40.7% respectively. The figures highlight how liner companies are responding to weak demand and adapting to uncertainty.

Sino-US trade has changed dramatically since Donald Trump came to power, with US imports from China falling for five consecutive months and exports falling for nine consecutive months. Since the beginning of the year, imports have dropped by 27% year-on-year, and exports have plummeted by 42%.

Faced with this situation, carriers are responding to the challenge using the only lever they still have control over: capacity. Fluctuations caused by tariffs have led to reduced shipping schedules and lower demand, and sailing suspensions have become the preferred method to support freight rates. Despite the scale of the adjustment, sourcing patterns have remained surprisingly stable, with most carriers yet to move production out of China in a material way, instead adjusting shipment times in response to spikes in tariffs.

Consulting firm Linerlytica noted this week that shipping lines face huge challenges in the latest round of efforts to restore freight rates.

The consulting company reported: "Affected by China's Golden Week holiday, market activities have slowed down, and freight rates in the Far East remain under pressure. Although shipping companies are pushing for a freight rate increase on October 15 to reverse the recent sharp decline in freight rates, the resumption of most regular routes after the suspension of Golden Week flights has hardly supported the increase in freight rates."

Investment bank Jefferies also recently warned that weak spot rates would pose a threat to contract negotiations in 2026, after noting freight rates fell below the break-even point for leading cost carriers for the first time since late 2023.

As the maritime industry continues to grapple with these challenges, project44 concludes that "tariffs will have an impact on the timing and reliability of cargo transportation more than the impact on the geography of the supply chain," but the outlook for 2026 "remains largely dependent on future tariff decisions and trade negotiations."